Confidence Picks in week 2 are:
LA Chargers (-3.5)
NY Giants (-3)
Houston @ Cincinnati (-6.5) | Over/Under 38
The Pick: Cincinnati (-6.5) – WHOOPS, 0-2 on Thursday Night games already this year
There’s a reason the total is only 38 points. Both offenses looked horrific in week 1. Tease the under to 48 and call it a day. Can’t imagine putting money on either team at this moment.
New England (-7) @ New Orleans | Over/Under 56.5
The Pick: New Orleans (+7)
The Saints have been held to fewer than 23 points just once in their past 16 home games. Even if the Patriots defense looks average this week (bit of a long shot), you could pencil in a minimum of 3 touchdowns for New Orleans. The only scenario where this game doesn’t hit the teased over of 45 is if Belichick is so scared of his defense that he forces the offense to put together a handful of 8-minute drives to keep Brees off the field…but I’m not too concerned about that specific scenario.
Cleveland @ Baltimore (-9) | Over/Under 38.5
The Pick: Cleveland (+9)
I’ll continue to back the Browns and expect that they’ll cover the spread. No take on the over/under as I don’t know what to make of the Browns on the road and how real Baltimore’s performance was last week.
Buffalo @ Carolina (-7) | Over/Under 43
The Pick: Carolina (-7)
Carolina teased feels pretty safe because either their offense is going to work through their issues and start to look decent, or their defense will carry them to some wins against the lesser talent in the NFL.
Arizona (-7.5) @ Indianapolis | Over/Under 44
The Pick: Indianapolis (+7.5)
Stay the FUCK away from this on all accounts. Do not be tempted. Do not let your gambling partner talk you into anything on this game. You will feel dumb no matter what you decide to do here.
Tennessee (-3) @ Jacksonville | Over/Under 42
The Pick: Tennessee (-3)
A compelling case could be put together to back the Titans in this game. After all, they did play an even game with the Raiders (all the game stats were almost identical even if they ultimately lost by 10) and they absolutely cannot afford to start 0-2 after all the buzz about them making the leap to the playoffs. Also, this team proved last year it can win on the road. They went 4-4 away from Nashville including 3 wins over 2016 playoff teams. Also, the Jags benefited from Houston’s horrible combination of offensive line and quarterback play. Included in their 29 points was a defensive touchdown, a field goal after getting the ball on Houston’s 28 yard line and a touchdown on a drive that began at their 47 yard line. Pretty easy situations for 16 of their 29 points. Go with the Titans.
Philadelphia @ Kansas City (-6) | Over/Under 47.5
The Pick: Philadelphia (+6)
Tease the under to 57.5. What’s more likely…that the Chiefs really have morphed into a new offense that’s super aggressive & vertical? Or that the Patriots’ lack of pass rush combined with KC knowing they had to take some low percentage shots to hang with the SB champs on the road was really the reason they looked like a different team than we’ve ever seen under Andy Reid? I’ll go with the second option and assume a competent Eagles D (4 sacks on Washington last week) keeps the Chiefs in check. And I can’t imagine an explosive game for Philly’s offense in the unfriendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium.
**Update: Realizing that Eagles cornerback Ronald Darby and Chiefs safety Eric Berry are both out for this game is making me re-think all of the above. Proceed with caution.**
Minnesota at Pittsburgh (-6) | Over/Under 45.5
The Pick: Minnesota (+6)
Stay away from any gambling on this and try to enjoy a good football game between two could-be Super Bowl contenders. We don’t know if the Steelers offense will excel at home against a top 5 defense. And we can’t think Sam Bradford will look anything like his week 1 self when facing an actual NFL caliber defense.
Chicago @ Tampa Bay (-7) | Over/Under 43
The Pick: Chicago (+7)
I think we could comfortably tease the Bucs and not give this game a second thought. The Bears are frisky, will give some teams some problems, but probably at home more than on the road.
Miami @ LA Chargers (-3.5) | Over/Under 45.5
The Pick: Chargers (-3.5)
First of all, the Chargers are simply the best. They are easily my favorite team to watch because while the result is almost always the same (devastating, incomprehensible loss), the way they get there always has a new wrinkle to it. The confidence I had when they were down by 17 in Denver on Monday night that they’d come all the way back, almost, and find a way to blow it, was through the roof. So because of their predictability, I’d only bet this game if I teased the Chargers to a +6.5, knowing a 3-point loss is their worst case scenario.
NY Jets @ Oakland (-14) | Over/Under 43.5
The Pick: Oakland (-14)
Don’t overthink this one. Tease the Raiders to a +4 and count your chickens before they hatch. The Bills absolutely dominated the Jets in all statistical categories last Sunday. A competent team would have won that same game by 19 instead of 9. I won’t really touch the total because who knows if it’ll be a 35-0 win for Oakland or more like 43-10.
Dallas (-3) @ Denver | Over/Under 42
The Pick: Dallas (-3)
So the Cowboys gave up 3 points to last year’s 22nd ranked offense that just so happened to be missing its one-and-only playmaker. And we’re all saying the Dallas defense is definitely good? OK. I’ll sit this one out from a betting standpoint. Still picking the Cowboys because I think the Broncos offense is just that bad.
Washington @ LA Rams (-3) | Over/Under 46
The Pick: Rams (-3)
I’m probably going to bet the Rams straight up, but I don’t see a great angle for any teasers in this game.
San Francisco @ Seattle (-14) | Over/Under 42
The Pick: San Francisco (+14)
It’s likely Seattle just happened to be facing one of the best teams in the NFC when looking so bad in Green Bay last week. And if that’s the case, they should be the team we’ve come to expect and absolutely steamroll the bad teams of the league when playing at home. I’ll stay away from betting it this week, but if they look fine, just know that they still get to host Indy, Houston, Washington and Arizona…all potentially bad teams. I’ll make my money on the Seahawks during those games.
Green Bay @ Atlanta (-3) | Over/Under 54.5
The Pick: Atlanta (-3)
Dammit, why didn’t I bet this game when it was Atlanta -2.5 earlier in the week?
Detroit @ NY Giants (-3) | Over/Under 43.5
The Pick: Giants (-3)
Under teased! Because even with OBJ last year, the Giants couldn’t crack 20 points most of the time. And Detroit on the road against a top 5 defense feels like a disaster. Sure, the Lions could do their thing and win a wild 4th quarter comeback, but that probably means they’re trailing 13-0 with 4 minutes left and win 14-13. This is a bad Monday Night Football game.