Well, it’s Saturday and I’m just finally posting my week 15 picks. Life sucks because it keeps getting in the way of my usual football research & writing routine. Oh well. As of the time I’m posting this, there are still 20 hours to get your bets in for the Sunday games. Get on it.
Here are the week 15 picks (yes I realize some of the games have absolutely no commentary this week).
Los Angeles at Seattle (-16) | over/under 38.5
The Pick: Seattle
The Score: Seattle 29, Los Angeles 10
The Bets: Seattle (-6) in a 3-way tease
Absolutely crazy to back a 16-point favorite in an NFL game. But the Rams and other exceptionally awful teams like Cleveland and San Francisco have made this a crazy betting season.
Getting the Seahawks into a 3-way, 10-point tease is a must-do.
Miami (-3) at NY Jets | over/under 38
The Pick: NY Jets
The Score: NY Jets 21, Miami 20
The Bets: None
For whatever reason, I was ultra confident in the Jets to cover in San Francisco last week, and I’m jumping right back in. Ryan Tannehill’s injury affects my thinking on this game almost 0%. It’s the end of the line for the Dolphins.
Tennessee at Kansas City (-5.5) | over/under 41.5
The Pick: Tennessee
The Score: Kansas City 24, Tennessee 19
The Bets: Kansas City (+0.5 or +4.5) in a 2-way or 3-way tease
Wow. Really feel like this game is going to play out exactly how the Vegas line suggests. Can’t get a read on a straight up bet here.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cincinnati | over/under 44.5
The Pick: Cincinnati
The Score: Cincinnati 24, Pittsburgh 21
The Bets: None
SuperContest: Yes with Cincinnati (+3.5)
Just feels like a half point too high for a December divisional game where the home team is playing for pride and to keep their biggest rival from getting closer to a playoff spot.
Detroit at NY Giants (-4) | over/under 40.5
The Pick: NY Giants
The Score: NY Giants 25, Detroit 19
The Bets: None
Feels like this is a matchup of the NFL’s two luckiest teams. But really the Lions are by far the luckier of the two. Detroit has no business having won 9 games.
Indianapolis at Minnesota (-4.5) | over/under 45.5
The Pick: Indianapolis
The Score: Minnesota 21, Indianapolis 20
The Bets: Under (55.5) in a 3-way tease
Colts on the road against a good defense + Indy’s defense making people like Brock Osweiler look semi-competent…immediately liked Minnesota.
After a long look at these two teams, I feel good about the Vikings winning, but not by more than 4 points.
Jacksonville at Houston (-5) | over/under 39.5
The Pick: Jacksonville
The Score: Houston 20, Jacksonville 17
The Bets: Jacksonville (+15) in a 3-way tease / Under (49.5) in a 3-way tease
Overreaction line to the Texans taking it to Indy on the road? As is customary in AFC South matchups, this is going to be ugly, probably particularly low-scoring.
Where are the points coming from in this game?
Green Bay (-6) at Chicago | over/under 38.5
The Pick: Chicago
The Score: Green Bay 24, Chicago 18
The Bets: Green Bay (+4) in a 3-way tease
Cleveland at Buffalo (-10.5) | over/under 41.5
The Pick: Buffalo
The Score: Buffalo 28, Cleveland 16
The Bets: Buffalo (-0.5) in a 3-way tease
SuperContest: Yes with Buffalo (-10.5)
The Bills in a 3-way tease is probably my favorite teaser component of the week. The Buffalo offense has really only played 3 bad offensive games all year. They’ll get close to 30 in this one, and there’s just no way the Browns can hang.
Philadelphia at Baltimore (-6) | over/under 40.5
The Pick: Philadelphia
The Score: Baltimore 20, Philadelphia 15
The Bets: Under (50.5) in a 3-way tease
The Eagles are 2-8 in their last 10 games and they’ve given up 24 points or more in all 8 of those losses (and under 24 in the 2 wins).
The numbers say Philly will cover, but the gut instinct is that the Ravens are significantly better and they should probably be the pick as long as they’re giving up less than a touchdown.
I say ignore the line and focus on the UNDER. Lock that into a teaser right now.
San Francisco at Atlanta (-13) | over/under 50.5
The Pick: San Francisco
The Score: Atlanta 35, San Francisco 23
The Bets: Atlanta (-3) in a 3-way tease
New Orleans at Arizona (-3) | over/under 50.5
The Pick: Arizona
The Score: Arizona 27, New Orleans 23
The Bets: None
SuperContest: Yes with Arizona (-3)
Oakland (-3) at San Diego | over/under 49
The Pick: San Diego
The Score: Oakland 28, San Diego 26
The Bets: Over (39) in a 3-way tease
Even though the shine’s come off the Chargers after losing 4 of their last 6, most of their games still see a lot of points. I’m confident the over will hit, but I’m extraordinarily confident the teased over of 39 will hit.
New England (-3.5) at Denver | over/under 44
The Pick: Denver
The Score: New England 23, Denver 20
The Bets: Under (54) in a 3-way tease
Tampa Bay at Dallas (-7) | over/under 47
The Pick: Tampa Bay
The Score: Tampa Bay 25, Dallas 24
The Bets: Tampa Bay (+17) in a 3-way tease
SuperContest: Yes with Tampa Bay (+7)
Carolina at Washington (-6.5) | over/under 51.5
The Pick: Washington
The Score: Washington 31, Carolina 21
The Bets: Washington (-0.5 or +3.5) in a 2-way or 3-way tease / Over (41.5) in a 3-way tease
SuperContest: Yes with Washington (-6.5)
Possibly my favorite straight up bet of the week is Washington. They’re good for 30 at home, and the Panthers are 1-5 on the road and have essentially been stuck on 20ish points per game away from North Carolina.
Here are the season-long stats that I’m tracking:
- Favorites are 92-106-10 against the spread (including 8-7-1 in week 14)
- The Point Total has landed on Over 104 times, Under 101 times, and Pushed 3 times
- I’m 111-90-7 against the spread
Enjoy week 15.