Week 16! Important games! Saturday football!
Here are the week 16 picks.
NY Giants (-3) at Philadelphia | over/under 41.5
The Pick: Philadelphia
The Score: NY Giants 17, Philadelphia 16
The Bets: Under (51.5) in a 3-way tease
Did you know Philly is 0-9 when their opponent scores more than 15 points this year? And they are 5-0 when they hold the other team to 15 or less.
Me thinks this trend continues as the Eagles give up just barely more than 15 and just barely lose.
(Note: I love being wrong about a prediction and still picking the right side of the line.)
Minnesota at Green Bay (-7) | over/under 43
The Pick: Green Bay
The Score: Green Bay 21, Minnesota 13
The Bets: Green Bay (-1 or +3) in a 2-way or 3-way tease / Under (53) in a 3-way tease
This is one of those situations where you know the line is inflated but you just can’t put your hard-earned cash on the underdog, as right as it is to do so.
I’ll be throwing the Packers into a teaser.
I’m also interested in teasing the under to 53. Look at the Packers’ schedule. They play high-scoring games against good offensive teams and low-scoring games against bad offensive teams. The Vikings are clearly in the second category.
Tennessee (-5) at Jacksonville | over/under 43.5
The Pick: Jacksonville
The Score: Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 20
The Bets: Jacksonville (+5) / Jacksonville (+15) in a 3-way tease
SuperContest: Yes with Jacksonville (+5)
Despite the perceived talent & success gap between these two teams, it’s still a shitty AFC South matchup. The Titans are merely 1 of the best 3 teams in the worst division in football. Should they really be laying 5 points on the road to anyone? No way. This line is absurd. (And I’m not even using the “every team plays better for a game or two after the head coach gets fired” argument, which might actually be valid.)
NY Jets at New England (-17) | over/under 44
The Pick: New England
The Score: New England 36, NY Jets 17
The Bets: Over (34) in a 3-way tease
Both teams should struggle to move the ball on the ground, so we have the makings of a high scoring game. The reason I think the Patriots actually cover this ridiculous spread is because A) The Jets are really, REALLY bad right now, not just regular bad, and B) Since the Patriots won’t have success running, they’ll naturally be more explosive passing against this awful defense.
Rather than tease the Pats down to -7 and still have to cover such an aggressive spread, I’m going big on the teased over of 34. The Patriots are almost certainly getting to that number on their own.
San Diego (-6) at Cleveland | over/under 44
The Pick: Cleveland
The Score: San Diego 23, Cleveland 18
The Bets: None
You can’t bet on the Browns and you don’t wanna be the guy who assumes the Chargers will show up in a meaningless, cold weather game.
The Chargers don’t win games on the road by more than a field goal.
Washington (-3) at Chicago | over/under 47
The Pick: Chicago
The Score: Washington 26, Chicago 25
The Bets: None
I always thought the tie in London against the Bengals would be Washington’s biggest regret of the season, but going 1-2 against the Cardinals, Eagles and Panthers over the past three weeks is worse.
Atlanta (-3) at Carolina | over/under 51.5
The Pick: Atlanta
The Score: Atlanta 31, Carolina 27
The Bets: Atlanta (+7) in a 3-way tease / Over (41.5) in a 3-way tease
SuperContest: Yes with Atlanta (-3)
Remember the glory days of 12 weeks ago when we could rely on an NFC South matchup easily going over the point total? I think we’re getting a throwback for the ages.
The Panthers are definitely good enough to push a solid-but-flawed Falcons to the brink of a loss, but especially with Julio Jones possibly coming back and the weather in Carolina being mild, I think the Falcons just barely win.
Miami at Buffalo (-4) | over/under 42
The Pick: Miami
The Score: Miami 24, Buffalo 23
The Bets: Over (42) / Over (32) in a 3-way tease
No game in Buffalo this year has had a point total under this game’s line of 42. And only 1 of the Dolphins’ last 10 games has come in under that number. I could see this game going in a number of directions concerning who wins and by how much. But on a relatively mild Saturday afternoon in Buffalo, points will be scored. That’s a certainty.
So I’m loving the over and the teased over.
Indianapolis at Oakland (-4) | over/under 53
The Pick: Indianapolis
The Score: Oakland 33, Indianapolis 31
The Bets: Over (43) in a 3-way tease
The Colts have actually been better offensively on the road lately than at home.
I’m expecting this game to play out like so many others have in Oakland this year…high scoring and decided in the final minute.
I’m teasing the over and praying to god that Derek Carr’s finger is at least 75%healthy.
San Francisco at Los Angeles (-4) | over/under 39.5
The Pick: San Francisco
The Score: Los Angeles 10, San Francisco 7
The Bets: None
It’s week 16 and this game doesn’t deserve more than 11 wor-
Arizona at Seattle (-8) | over/under 43
The Pick: Seattle
The Score: Seattle 28, Arizona 14
The Bets: Seattle (-2 or +2) in a 2-way or 3-way tease
SuperContest: Yes with Seattle (-8)
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3) | over/under 52
The Pick: Tampa Bay
The Score: Tampa Bay 28, New Orleans 26
The Bets: Over (42.5) in a 3-way tease
Cincinnati at Houston (pick) | over/under 42
The Pick: Houston
The Score: Houston 23, Cincinnati 17
The Bets: Houston (pick) / Houston (+10) in a 3-way tease
SuperContest: Yes with Houston (pick)
Just a perfect ending for Houston to ride Tom Savage to the playoffs.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-5.5) | over/under 44.5
The Pick: Pittsburgh
The Score: Pittsburgh 24, Baltimore 15
The Bets: Pittsburgh (+4.5) in a 3-way tease / Under (54.5) in a 3-way tease
SuperContest: Yes with Pittsburgh (-5.5)
So the Ravens are 2-4 on the road, and those two wins came way back in weeks 2 & 3 against the Browns and Jaguars. This is deeply concerning if you’ve got a bet on Baltimore to make the playoffs like I do.
The Ravens can’t score. I could see them getting 5 field goals and nothing more.
Denver at Kansas City (-3.5) | over/under 37.5
The Pick: Denver
The Score: Kansas City 20, Denver 17 (OT)
The Bets: Under (47.5) in a 3-way tease
Did I see that the Broncos could know before this game that they’re eliminated from playoff contention? If that’s the case, I’m staying away, of course.
Detroit at Dallas (-7) | over/under 44.5
The Pick: Detroit
The Score: Dallas 27, Detroit 23
The Bets: No
I’m posting these picks on Friday, and the Cowboys have already locked up the #1 seed in the NFC, thanks to the Giants’ loss in Philly on Thursday. The Vegas books haven’t moved off this spread so far, but I’m waiting to see if we get any word on Dallas resting players.
My gut tells me Jason Garrett plays his starters for the 1st half of each of the next two games. So I’m off this one completely from a betting standpoint.
Here are the season-long stats that I’m tracking:
- Favorites are 99-115-10 against the spread (including 7-9 in week 15)
- The Point Total has landed on Over 111 times, Under 110 times, and Pushed 3 times
- I’m 121-96-7 against the spread
Enjoy week 16.