Week 4 NFL Picks Against The Spread

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And just like that, we’ve reached the start of the bye weeks. We won’t be seeing Green Bay or Carolina in week 4. And that’s fine because those are some crappy 1-2 teams anyway. The less garbage teams we have to deal with, the better the Red Zone Channel will be.

Speaking of bye weeks, is it completely unheard of for an analyst/blogger to take a bye week in order to lick his wounds, recuperate from a brutal opening three games and get mentally prepared for the long haul of the rest of the season? Because if things don’t pick up for me quickly, I might just take a week off and spend my Sunday picking out a new couch with the girlfriend.

I was 6-9-1 against the spread last week, and I’m now 15-30-3 on the year. Writing that sentence brings a tear to my eye.

As for the NFL landscape after three weeks, we’ve got seven undefeated teams and six unvictorious teams. And the other 19 teams fall somewhere in the middle.

I think we’ll still have five undefeated teams after this week, but we could have as many as six still (someone has to lose the Miami-New Orleans Monday night game).

And I think two of those winless teams will get on the board finally, meaning we’ll still have four 0-fer teams. So it’s going to be a while before we find out who’s the last undefeated team and who’s the last “only-defeated” team.

If you’re a Washington fan and want to feel even worse about your team, there’s this: The Redskins’ opponents from the first three weeks of the season are a combined 1-5 in games not against the ‘Skins. So they’re not exactly losing to the cream of the crop.

And if you want to feel better as a Tampa Bay fan, here you go: The Bucs’ opponents from the first three weeks are a combined 5-1, so they’ve been forced to play against some of the competent teams in the league. Things could get better…

Enough of me trying to make coherent judgments based on a tiny three-week sample size. Let’s get to the week 4 picks:

San Francisco (-3.5) @ St. Louis

In the two most recent Thursday night games, the home favorite didn’t even come close to covering. There could be plenty of reasons for that, but it might just be that every Thursday game turns into a sloppy, replacement-player-looking shit show. The quick turnaround in such a brutal sport could be a realistic reason these games always seem to look so bad. And for the 49ers, this short week is even worse because their injury report is littered with important players. Patrick Willis is probably missing this game, Justin Smith is limited in practice, Aldon Smith, as you may have heard, is in rehab and gone for the foreseeable future, and maybe most importantly, Vernon Davis may not play again because of his hamstring. This team seems offensively neutered right now (I mean that they are neutered on the offensive side of the ball, not that they got neutered in a particularly offensive way), and the defense may be in rough shape for a couple weeks. The Rams are mostly healthy and they’re playing at home against a tough opponent they know they can beat based on last year. I’m taking them to only lose by a field goal. St. Louis covers, but San Francisco wins 23-20.

Pittsburgh (-1.5) @ Minnesota (but really @ London)

This game’s currently off the board because of the Minnesota QB situation, but I’m not sure replacing Christian Ponder with Matt Cassel changes much in the bettors’ eyes. This is literally an elimination game as the loser will be 0-4. And it would take a level of chaos and lucky breaks we haven’t yet seen for an 0-4 team to rattle off 11 wins in their final 12 games and make the playoffs. We might be talking about the NFC’s worst vs the AFC’s worst. You’re welcome, London!

In a game like this, it’s time to fall back on the QB position. And I’ll take Ben Roethlisberger over Ponder or Cassel every day. I think Steelers win 27-17.

Baltimore (-3.5) @ Buffalo

For those of you who read my picks last year, you’re going to notice an old standby I’m unearthing from the 2012 time capsule: trying my hardest to discredit the Ravens! This time my biggest knock on them is the offense. Did you know that if you take out defensive and special teams scores as well as garbage time points (some against Denver in week 1, a field goal against Houston with the game out of hand last week) this Ravens team has put up 44 total points on offense during the competitive portions of their three games? That’s less than 15 points per game. And that’s with the benefit of playing two home games already, one of which they got to play on 10 days rest. All I’m saying is that this team makes me nervous. And sure, I’m willing to admit that the defense, outside of that Denver game, still looks solid.

Wait a second though. If I’m about to pick the Bills to upset Baltimore, I better be damn sure that Buffalo’s pretty close to healthy…

One look at the google results of their Wednesday injury report, and nope, not even remotely healthy. The Bills’ head coach is even on record saying that other teams are picking on his secondary because they’re down to their 12th best option at cornerback (slight exaggeration only).

The Ravens will have their day when they don’t squeak by because of the other team’s inferior play or from a lucky defensive/special teams score. But just hearing the Bills admit that they can’t stop anybody in the passing game until they get healthy scares the shit out of me. Let’s go with Baltimore winning, 31-24.

Cincinnati (-5) @ Cleveland
When you see a point spread at five, it means the line setters have no idea what to make of this game…which seems appropriate because I have no idea what to make of this game. The Bengals could win by 50. The Bengals could win by a field goal. The Browns…could…win?

Looking at last week’s games doesn’t help us come to a conclusion because both teams benefited from some crazy, unrepeatable plays. The Bengals got two Aaron Rodgers picks and a Green Bay fumble at the worst possible time (or best possible time from Cincy’s point of view). Cleveland ran a fake field goal and got a touchdown out of it, recovered a Ponder fumble while Minnesota was in the red zone and then recovered an Adrian Peterson fumble, something that’s only happened to AP four other times in his past 908 carries.

So lots of flukiness went into both these teams’ wins last week, which helps us 0.00% for this week.

I’m falling back on a preseason instinct that had me thinking this AFC North division is going to play each other particularly close. So the Browns at home can keep it a one-score game. And I’ll buy into Josh Gordon’s return really stretching the field and opening up space for everyone else. The Browns move to 2-0 in the Trent Richardson-less era, winning 23-17.

Indianapolis (-9) @ Jacksonville

Without even thinking, I’m taking the Colts. All I needed to see is that Blaine Gabbert will be back under center for the Jags on Sunday. I’m out on the Gabbert era. The Colts coast to a 30-13 victory.

Seattle (-3) @ Houston

Since Seattle’s unlikely to go 16-0, we eventually have to pin a loss or two on them. And no doubt those losses will come on the road. But this isn’t a moment to get cute and pick the upset. We know Seattle’s secondary will shut down Houston’s passing attack regardless of whether Andre Johnson plays or not. So is Houston going to run all over the Seahawks and cause some timely turnovers? Doubtful. When picking Houston based purely on them being at home, remember they had to win an overtime home game against Tennessee in semi-miraculous fashion just two weeks ago. I could see the Seahawks winning big enough on Sunday that the TV media starts having the “will Seattle and Denver both go 16-0 in the regular season” debates. I’ll say Seattle wins, 30-10.

Arizona @ Tampa Bay (-2.5)

Out of all the statistical reasons to pick against the Bucs in this game, here’s the actual reason I’m doing it: I’m worried that as Larry Fitzgerald is catching his 11th pass of the day against a Tampa Bay zone defense, Darrelle Revis is going to walk over to the sideline, decapitate his head coach and defecate into the neck hole. That’s how pissed off Revis probably is that he’s not matching up against the opposition’s WR1 this year. Because stupid Greg Schicano plays a stupid version of football. And how can you back a team whose players are undermining its coach while the coach is undermining those players right back? Oh, and I’m happy for Mike Glennon especially because I predicted in the preseason blog that Josh Freeman would be the first QB benched due to ineffectiveness, but if you don’t think Glennon has a costly “rookie trying to do too much for a desperate team” moment in this game, you must not watch very much football.

Arizona gets a road win for the first time in its last 10 tries, 34-27.

Chicago @ Detroit (-3)

These two teams are pretty similar, right? Both have big-armed QBs who primarily throw to only one reliable wide receiver. Both have a fantastic running back who is usually more dangerous as a receiver than a runner. Both lost a key player from the defensive line for the year last week. And neither will be satisfied until they take the division title back from Green Bay.

Chicago might be 3-0, but Detroit’s played the better football so far this year. And for all the talk the Bears defense gets for its “ball-hawking skills” and “nose for the end zone,” they’re actually pretty pedestrian against the pass. Give me Detroit in a close one, 33-27.

NY Giants @ Kansas City (-4.5)

Things look bad for the Giants, and the worst part is I don’t hear any informed analysts or media types saying reinforcements are on the way for this team. And Kansas City looked pretty ferocious on defense last Thursday night. Oh yeah, and the Chiefs had 10 days to get ready while the Giants were busy getting embarrassed in Carolina over the weekend. I honestly expected this line to be closer to a touchdown so I’ll gladly take the Chiefs to cover and win, 28-14.

NY Jets @ Tennessee (-4)

It’s terrifying to think one of these teams will emerge on Sunday afternoon with a 3-1 record. It’s even more terrifying when you realize that both of these teams are one play away (in their week two games) from being 3-0. Could you imagine if the Titans were 4-0 by the end of this weekend? The 4-0 Jets? I shudder to think of the trash-talk that would be coming out of the New York area if that was the case.

I’m not ready to live in a world where the Jets are 3-1, Rex Ryan’s job is safe and Geno Smith is the answer at quarterback.

The Jets’ success so far seems based on a lucky break (Tampa game), the now-predictable Thursday night slopfest (narrowly losing to the Patriots in Foxboro) and a terrible road game from a rookie QB (EJ Manuel sucking it up in New Jersey last week).

I like Tennessee a lot more. They’ll win 24-17.

Dallas (-2) @ San Diego

No, Dallas, you don’t get to improve your record to 3-1. That wouldn’t be fair to the rest of the NFC East teams, who are desperately counting on a 9-7 record to take the division. I know the Cowboys can’t mathematically lock up the division by winning this game, but they might have an insurmountable two-game lead if they do. And that’s just not the way the East gets won these days. And, hey, San Diego’s frisky. And what if the middle class teams of the AFC are as good or better than the middle class of the NFC? I think San Diego wins this game, 34-30.

Washington (-3) @ Oakland

Matt Flynn hasn’t started a football game in 635 days. Seriously. It’s one of those situations where our hands are tied picking this game. You have to pick the Redskins based on the QB situation with Oakland (I guess there’s a chance Pryor starts, but since I’m posting these picks on Thursday, I gotta go with the information available. So far Pryor hasn’t practiced this week because of a concussion). And let’s not forget that the Raiders were supposed to be terrible anyway. I gotta go with a Washington win, 34-20.

(Side Note: My poor friends who are Washington fans. They are desperately hoping I start picking against their team because I’m a known jinx. Whenever I buy a jersey of a player, it’s basically a death sentence for that guy. And whenever I eagerly board a team’s bandwagon (like I did with Washington at the start of last year’s playoffs and continued to do so in the preseason this year), the thing immediately crashes into a brick wall and catches on fire, killing all of the passengers and even some innocent bystanders. If they lose to Oakland, I promise to pick against them at Dallas after their bye week, if only to try to save some friendships.)

Philadelphia @ Denver (-11)

It won’t be a close game, but it feels like a backdoor cover in the making. Denver up comfortably all game, kicks a late field goal to go up three scores, Philly marches down the field for an easy touchdown, but time’s up and they lose by 10. Denver wins 38-28.

Interestingly enough I’m picking the Broncos as my suicide pick this week even though I think Philly covers. If these two teams play 100 times in Denver, I see the Broncos winning in routine, one-score-difference fashion about 75 times; the Broncos winning in crazy blowout fashion 15 times, and the Eagles pulling off the upset 10 times. Of course that 10% scares me but no other team is as much of a sure thing this week (i.e. lots of the best teams are on the road it seems).

New England @ Atlanta (-2)

I think this game is extremely close the entire time. And if this was 2012, I’d immediately pick against the Patriots because over the past couple years they’ve been terrible in close games, especially when they have a chance to close out an opponent with a clock-killing drive. But this year they’ve already won two of those kind of games, and the defense in particular has looked good in the 4th quarter. The Falcons on the road is tough, but they have a ton of injuries that are already catching up to them. Atlanta at home over the last handful of years is stupid to bet against, but that’s what I’m here for, stupid bets. I think the Patriots win another close one, 26-23.

Miami @ New Orleans (-7)

Wow, Monday Night Football’s actually getting a great matchup. Two 3-0 teams. AFC vs NFC. Is New Orleans’ turnaround for real? Is Miami ready to be a playoff contender? I feel like the loser of this game should be forced to be the team most closely associated with Ricky Williams.

So which 3-0 start is more legit? The Dolphins have already won two road games, have outscored their opponents by 21 points, and have knocked off two of last year’s playoff teams.

The Saints have won two at home and a close one on the road, have outscored their opponents by 32, and have knocked off one 2012 playoff team.

Both teams have beaten Atlanta at home. New Orleans won 23-17, and Miami won 27-23.

Lots of statistical similarities between these teams. I definitely have not found a good reason to think the Saints will win by more than a touchdown. As a matter of fact, out of the seven undefeated teams, the Dolphins have played the toughest schedule (based on opponents’ record in their other games). Let’s take Miami to cover, but the Saints to win, 28-23.

For those of you keeping score at home, in week 4 I’m taking:

  • 8 Favorites & 7 Underdogs
  • Of those 7 Underdogs, 3 of them are Home Dogs and 4 of them are Road Dogs

Enjoy week 4.

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Poll Question of the Century: NFL Sunday or Opening Day March Madness

After moving my annual Vegas trip from the opening weekend of March Madness to the weekend before—Conference Tournament weekend—I promised myself I wouldn’t care about the big tournament as much as I usually do. The ability to order a bucket of beers at 9AM while making the twenty-foot walk from your cushy leather sports book seat to the betting window to put money down on each game will make you care, regardless of who’s playing. So I figured for the first time in eight years, this opening weekend would be a little underwhelming.

As I write this, we’re only five hours into the Thursday games, and I’m ready to admit I couldn’t have been more wrong. After trying to half pay attention during the first couple games and busy myself with other tasks, I slowly but surely turned my living room into a sports book as best as I possibly could: watching two games at once, betting website up on my computer, brackets everywhere and a fridge full of beers. The only thing missing is access to a blackjack table (though if I really get the itch, my betting website will take blackjack action).

I’m all in on this tournament, which brings me to perhaps my most interesting poll question of all time: Which is the more exhilarating full day of sports: the first Thursday/Friday of March Madness or a late-season NFL Sunday?

Here are some considerations before we get to the vote:

  • Yes, March Madness is the playoffs so you could call this an easy vote. But that’s why I’m saying a late regular season slate of NFL games. Think late December with a bunch of division games (Minnesota vs Green Bay this past year, for instance)
  • The NFL is the greatest sport on earth (also the greatest form of entertainment)
  • But March Madness produces so much insanity every year
  • 16 games per day during these first days of March Madness. Never more than four going at the same time. The day begins at 9AM and ends around 9PM (12 hours of entertainment)
  • 14 games per NFL Sunday during non-bye weeks. Usually about eight morning games, five afternoon games and one night game. The day begins at 10AM and ends around 8PM (1o hours of entertainment)
  • With the Red Zone Channel you really can see everything important in football and not move from your couch the entire day
  • With CBS and its affiliates (TNT, TBS, TRU), you can pick any of the basketball games you want
  • With both sports, you can add a “second TV” to your viewing experience by watching games on your computer
  • For some people it probably boils down to “Sunday versus a week day.” Shame on you for not using one of my many excuses to leave work for these next two days

I’ve made my case. If I had to choose, I’d go with NFL Sunday only because football is such a superior sport. Your turn to vote.

A Sunday for the Ages: 3 OT Games, Season-Altering Injuries, 5-Loss Teams Rising from the Dead and the Rest of the NFL’s Week 11

Dear Pueto,

By now you’ve completed your trek in Nepal, and I’m hoping your spiritual enlightening and “meditation” allowed you to see how bad of an idea it is to miss part of the NFL season. If this epiphany didn’t happen on your journey, then perhaps this review of the craziest week of the 2012 NFL season will make you understand.

You know it hasn’t been a normal football week when I literally have to close my twitter feed in order to finally write this review because there is just constantly breaking news being announced all day on Monday. Seriously, every time my twitter feed has updated today, it’s been something new: “Alex Smith unable to go, Kaepernick to start tonight vs Bears,” “Chad Henne to start next game for Jags,” “Willis McGahee out 6-8 weeks,” “Ed Reed suspended 1 game for repeated violations of helmet-to-helmet hits,” “Steelers to work out Plaxico Burress this week.”

But I’m getting way ahead of myself, Pueto. Do yourself a favor…sit down, grab a cup of coffee and buckle your seatbelt. This is gonna be quite the recap:

-First of all, leave it to the football gods to schedule the most exciting Sunday of the year for the same weekend that I was out of town camping, and potentially missing the first half of Sunday’s games. You see, my girlfriend finds me to be a perfectly acceptable boyfriend even with the knowledge that every year from September through the following January I’m going to be a relationship zombie on Sundays. She fully expects me to sit on the couch for 10 hours straight every Sunday for 21 weeks. So when we decided to go camping this past weekend, I made the suggestion that we don’t rush back to LA on Sunday morning and instead enjoy an extra day out in nature. By doing this on just one Sunday, I’d up my status from “acceptable boyfriend” to “world’s most caring, selfless and thoughtful boyfriend.” Sacrificing three hours of games for the future relationship benefits seemed like a small price to pay. But then, almost miraculously, some amazing things happened: It rained almost all weekend in Santa Barbara (where we were staying), our dog’s first time camping wasn’t a complete disaster, but it certainly had its moments of frustration for all three of us, the hiking trails were soggy and slippery, and by Sunday morning the inside of our tent looked like a mud-covered dog had rolled around in it for the better part of two days (because she had). So by 7AM on Sunday, Julie was more ready to leave than I was. Had we stayed through the morning in Santa Barbara, my plan was to watch all of Sunday’s action on tape delay. So basically I would start the Red Zone Channel’s broadcast as soon as we got home, then I’d switch to the Patriots game right around the 1:20PM mark (pacific time) of the RZC’s broadcast, and then I’d watch the night game whenever I was done with the Patriots. This could have worked, but we all know something would have gone wrong. Instead our first rain storm in nearly six months in Southern California allowed me to see week 11 unfold live. Having to basically sleep in a puddle for two straight nights was well worth it.

-Let’s give you the 10,000-foot view of the early games, Pueto: Eight total games played, five one-score games, three overtime games, two overtime games that ended with a touchdown instead of a standard ultra-conservative field goal attempt, one RGIII beatdown of the six-losses-in-a-row Eagles, and a couple less interesting blowout wins by the Bengals and Jets (both were road wins, if that helps make those games seem more interesting).

Because there was so much craziness from 10AM Sunday morning through 8PM Monday night, the only logical way to get you up to speed is to quickly recap each game, focusing on only the most important details:

Atlanta beat Arizona 23-19, but Matt Ryan pretty much opted out of the MVP discussion with a five-interception, no-touchdown game. Yes, that’s how bad the Cardinals are…they were handed six Falcons turnovers and a 13-0 lead, and I still knew with 100% certainty while they had that lead that Atlanta would win. You’ll want to know that Arizona starting QB John Skelton was actually benched with a 13-0 lead in favor of rookie 6th round pick Ryan Lindley. No injury to Skelton or anything, just a straight up benching while his team was up two scores on the road. Of course the Falcons got a strip sack fumble touchdown on Lindley’s third play. Rather than write the previous four sentences, maybe I should have just showed you this graphic that Fox put on the screen with only three minutes left in the 2nd quarter:

-In Dallas, the Cowboys tried to make sure you’d live to regret picking them in your suicide pool, Pueto, but they had just enough in the tank to come back from their own 13-point deficit and stay alive in the NFC playoff race with a 23-20 win. All you really need to know is that by the end of this coming Sunday night, the Cowboys could be in 1st place in the NFC East. It’s not even a long shot. If they beat Washington at home on Thanksgiving and the Giants lose at home to Green Bay on Sunday, Dallas has the inside track on a playoff spot.

-Also, as I realized the suicide pool was about to be over for me (via my pick, St. Louis, losing, and the only other pick, Dallas, winning), I got really angry to the point of threatening to throw my computer off my third-floor balcony. Right on cue, Julie says, “You have so much anger, just come take it out on this cheese here…just grate this cheese so hard, just grate the shit out of this cheese til your anger’s gone.” She almost pulled a fast one on me, but she knows not even angry dinner-cooking will get me through my gambling losses.

The Packers beat the Lions 24-20, but there were only two noteworthy things that I noted about this game: 1). The Packers might be the most boring good football team I’ve seen in a while…no flashy plays, no undefeated season, no drama, no hanging 59 points on overmatched teams, and 2). Don’t you think Matt Stafford kind of looks like your college buddy Proctor?

In the Bengals 28-6 win over the Chiefs, there’s one newsworthy item and one non-newsworthy item. The non-newsy news is that Matt Cassel was benched mid-game in favor of Brady Quinn. They were each able to put up just a tiny bit less than 100 passing yards. The possibly-important news item is that the Bengals are now 5-5, in the playoff hunt and possibly have a good chance of finishing with a better record than Pittsburgh (more on that in a bit).

In the Jets’ 23-17 win at St. Louis (aka “my final suicide pool selection of the year”), I decided that the second most exciting thing Andrew Siciliano can say on the Red Zone Channel as he’s cutting over from one game to another is, “Here’s what just happened to Mark Sanchez in St. Louis…” (I’ll tell you the most exciting thing A-Sic could say later on). Every Sanchez gaffe means one of three things at this point: 1). Sanchez stays in the game and continues to redefine futility and ineptness as they relate to the quarterback position. 2). Tim Tebow comes in for Sanchez and immediately looks like a worse option (to the point where his teammates are anonymously quoted after the game as saying, “I’d take Mark Sanchez with completely torn up shoulder and elbow ligaments over a healthy Tebow”). 3). Tebow comes in for Sanchez and leads the Jets to an improbable comeback, causing the Jets to stick with Tebow as the starter. How can you not love one of those three things if you hate the Jets like I do?

-You know it’s a day with a lot of compelling story lines when RGIII putting up a perfect passer rating (14-for-15, 200 yards, 4TDs) and adding 84 rushing yards gets lost in the shuffle. But that’s really the only thing to update you on in the Redskins’ 31-6 win over the Eagles. Oh, and Nick Foles = not the answer.

The Bucs beat the Panthers 27-21 in overtime, and I’m sure there is plenty to say about the importance of this win for Tampa’s playoff hopes, and the importance of this loss for Carolina’s justification to fire head coach Ron Rivera after the season, blah blah blah…but what I wanna focus on is the single most exciting thing Andrew Siciliano can say on the Red Zone Channel when he’s cutting over from one game to another: “Here’s what the Bucs offense just did in Carolina…” There’s no team I get more excited for when they’re cutting to that team’s offensive highlights than the Bucs. Between Vincent Jackson, Doug Martin and a sprinkling of Mike Williams, it seems like every play is a 40-yard catch or run with the potential to break off a long touchdown. I’m still avoiding posting an MVP Race blog, but when I do, I’ll have to take a long look at some of those guys on the Tampa Bay offense. Just an amazing run they’re on right now. Hope it doesn’t stop because their offense is super exciting and their defense is bad enough to make each one of their offensive possessions extra important.

The Texans beat the Jaguars 43-37 in overtime, and for this game, Pueto, you may just want to read the game story on ESPN.com because there were so many ups and downs for both teams. You should know that the team with the worst record in football lost their starting quarterback in this game after just two pass attempts, and yet on the road they led the team with the best record in football by 14 points in the fourth quarter. Of course they blew that 14-point lead and ultimately lost in overtime, but still…spirited effort! Some guys set some records in this game, so you should probably look into that, but otherwise all that happened was Houston got added to the list of good teams that struggled against one of the very bad teams this year (that list includes Green Bay, Chicago, Atlanta, New England and Baltimore).

-All you need to know about the afternoon games, Pueto, is that New Orleans rolled through Oakland with a 38-17 win (you should get back to the U.S. just in time to hear all the “No one wants to face the Saints in the playoff” chatter. That should die down when they lose sometime in the next two weeks), and Denver held off San Diego 30-23 to officially wrap up the AFC West (I guess you’ll probably want to know that one of our running backs on our shared fantasy team, Willis McGahee, tore his MCL and is out at least for the rest of the regular season). But the boringness was welcomed because the Patriots vs the Colts was the real focus of Sunday afternoon.

-You’ll see that the Pats more than handled Indy with a 59-24 “are they running up the score again” beat down. What you need to know is that this team finally looked like a legit contender and all Patriots fans were breathing a collective sigh of relief after the game that their team was back…and that lasted all of 30 minutes until we learned Gronk is out at least four weeks, possibly longer, with a broken forearm. Realistically we need to accept that the Pats aren’t getting a playoff bye this year (Gronk’s injury combined with Houston and Baltimore continuing to win makes that a near certainty), but as long as Gronk comes back 100% healthy for the playoffs, who really cares what seed they get.

-In the night game, the Steelers really could have taken some of the sting off the Gronk news by taking down Baltimore, but a banged up Byron Leftwich couldn’t deliver as Pittsburgh fell to the Ravens 13-10. You read that correctly. You see, last weekend while you were gone, Ben Roethlisberger managed to hurt both his shoulder and his ribs against the Chiefs. And apparently the rib injury is severe enough that it could cause nerve damage in his arm or death in his aorta if he’s not careful. So don’t expect to see him for a few more weeks. So it turns out Leftwich is still the Steelers’ backup QB. And he had a 32-yard touchdown run in the first quarter (picture the speed at which Tom Brady would be running if Vince Wilfork was sitting on his shoulders and you get a visual for Leftwich’s quickness) where he actually injured himself when diving into the endzone untouched. So now we’re seeing headlines like “Steelers plan to sign Mike Kafka as backup, Charlie Batch to start.” It is now perfectly acceptable to picture the AFC playoffs without Pittsburgh. The wildcard spots could go to Indy and Cincinnati. Somehow teams like the Chargers, Bills, Jets, Titans and Dolphins could be only one game out of a playoff spot by the time next week if all goes right (or wrong, depending on your point of view).

-Oh and did I point out how fucking lucky of a team the Ravens are? They’ve been the worst 8-2 team I’ve ever seen, and this was supposed to be the start of their free fall because the schedule was supposed to get tougher. Instead they get to play two games against Pitt without going against Roethlisberger…lucky SOBs.

-As far as the Monday night game goes, Pueto, you’re never gonna believe this, but the Bears’ offensive line was bad. As a matter of fact, it was so bad that Jon Gruden suggested the Bears just run the ball up the middle over and over to try to escape the game healthy…he was saying that at the beginning of the 3rd quarter. The 32-7 win for the 9ers doesn’t even do the one-sidedness of the game justice. It was ugly, and the Bears have ZERO chance to do anything in the playoffs (if they get there) without their defense putting up offense-like numbers. Oh, and late-breaking news as I finish this recap on Monday night: Jim Harbaugh might roll with Kaepernick as his starting QB even if Alex Smith is ready to go next week.

-So to recap for you, Pueto: the Patriots won but lost their 2nd best player for the rest of the regular season, we lost that same player on our fantasy team as well as one of our starting RBs (McGahee), one of our wide receivers (Titus Young) is essentially suspended from the team indefinitely for being an asshole, and our other star RBs (Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy) play for the two teams with the worst offensive lines in football. All in all, a good two weeks of football you missed.

Sincerely,

The Guy Who Did Indeed Run Our Shared Fantasy Team Into The Ground While You Were Gone

The NFL’s Scheduling Problems, the Packers’ Offensive Problems, the Bears’ Jay Cutler Problem and the Rest of Week 8 in Review

As much of a football expert as I am, even I can’t pretend to understand what the NFL was thinking with its Thursday Night Football schedule. It’s almost like someone purposely decided to take the worst matchup of each week and schedule it for Thursday night on the NFL Network. Through seven Thursday games, we’ve had one great matchup where the game didn’t live up to the hype (Green Bay 23, Chicago 10), one game that came down to the wire despite an undesirable matchup (Tennessee 26, Pittsburgh 23), and five awful matchups with correlating hideous outcomes (NY Giants 36, Carolina 7; Baltimore 23, Cleveland 16; St. Louis 17, Arizona 3; San Francisco 13, Seattle 6; Tampa Bay 36, Minnesota 17).

And then there’s the NFL Network’s schedule the rest of the season: Kansas City @ San Diego, Indianapolis @ Jacksonville, Miami @ Buffalo, New Orleans @ Atlanta, Denver @ Oakland, Cincinnati @ Philadelphia.

Seven of those 12 teams have essentially been eliminated from the playoffs already. Only New Orleans @ Atlanta is semi-interesting because the Falcons might be going for 11-0 at that point, and the Saints still draw a crowd even though they’re looking at a 6-10 record at best.

If I was making the NFL TV schedule, I wouldn’t give a shit about making sure every team has a nationally-televised game. I would prioritize the most popular teams and the teams most likely to have a strong season (unless of course there’s a legality in the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement or the TV contracts that states every team has to have a national game. If that’s the case, disregard the previous 250 words).

Anyway, I’m sick of telling my girlfriend to go find something to do every Thursday night from 5:30 – 8:30, and then realizing the game is awful and wishing she was around so we could continue catching up on Say Yes to the Dress: Atlanta.

Let’s quickly recap what I thought was noteworthy from week 8:

-Speaking of the NFL TV schedule, can someone please explain the logic behind the unbalanced Sunday schedule? This past weekend there were nine games on at 10am PT and only two at 1pm PT. Someone tried to tell me it has to do with the World Series being on, but that can’t be true because the schedule continues to be extremely heavy on the early games for the rest of the season. It can’t have anything to do with too many games being on the east coast because they  schedule plenty of eastern time zone games into the later game slate when they want to.

-Two negative things come from this Sunday schedule: 1). Andrew Siciliano’s head almost explodes live on the Red Zone Channel because he can’t keep up with the dizzying pace of touchdowns and big plays that he has to update us on during the early games, and 2). I end up feeling like I never saw a second of a couple early games because it’s impossible to stay on top of them all.

-This week’s “game that I had no idea was even on because the Red Zone Channel never had time to flash over to it” was Jacksonville vs Green Bay. Here’s what I found out about that game when I read the recap on Sunday afternoon: the Packers somehow only put up one offensive touchdown at home in the first half against a Jaguars team ranked 23rd in passing defense. And with about nine minutes left in the 3rd quarter and the Packers up by 2, this happened: From the Jacksonville 38 yard line, on 4th & 4, the Packers lined up to punt, but decided to run a fake and have their punter Tim Masthay throw what had to be one of the worst passes in NFL history for a lucky incompletion (lucky because it wasn’t picked and returned for a touchdown). So they wanted to convert a 4th down in a key spot and the best way to do this was taking the reigning MVP of the league out of the game?  I continue to think something is terribly wrong with the Green Bay offense. How else can you explain the recent trend of them calling for some trickery to generate points? This week it was the fake punt, two weeks ago it was a surprise onsides kick. I’m just saying either Mike McCarthy is outcoaching himself or there’s worry that they can’t put up enough points with a traditional offense.

-Speaking of less-than-impressive NFC North performances, did you know the Bears defense didn’t allow an offensive touchdown to Carolina on Sunday? Even with the Panthers controlling the ball for 37 minutes? And yet somehow it took a last-second field goal for Chicago to pull off the comeback win? I guess the fact that Jay Cutler had -8 fantasy points for me at halftime partially explains how this game was so close. Is there any difference between the 2012 Chicago Bears and the 2006 Super Bowl-losing Chicago Bears? Historically good defense complimented by an atrocious offensive line trying to protect a quarterback with a propensity to turn the ball over? No difference, right? And yet they still look like one of the best four teams in football.

-Do we even have to mention the hideous Pittsburgh Steeler uniforms from Sunday? It’s a common misconception that those uniforms were throwbacks to what they looked like back in the 1930’s. Actually it turns out they just wanted to honor Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite Simpson’s character because the actor who voiced him died recently. That character of course is the Bumble Bee Man:

-Love how the suicide picks this week were supposed to be a gimme. In my pool, half the people still remaining picked Green Bay and the other half picked Chicago. Yep, didn’t have to sweat those picks out at all. But we all survived, and now sadly I’m looking at the possibility of having to pick the 3-4 San Diego Chargers in week 9.

-Speaking of the Chargers, WTF happened to them on Sunday? I know they aren’t very good, but they only turned the ball over once, Philip Rivers was only sacked once, they had a time of possession advantage over Cleveland, they had more total yards…and they lost 7-6? And Norv Turner still has a job, right? There is no one steering the ship down there in San Diego, huh?

-No matter how bad you think you have it as a football fan—I’m talking to you Cleveland, New Orleans, Buffalo, Dallas and Tennessee fans—just remember there are people in Kansas City who are not only spending their money on tickets to see their horrific 1-6 team sink to a new low every week, but also on hiring planes to fly signs over their stadium begging for Chiefs GM Scott Pioli to be fired.

-Julie spent the entire Giants/Cowboys game being amazed that one of the pregame analysts predicted Tony Romo would throw three interceptions and that he was actually doing it (he threw four, actually). I had to explain that this was one of the safest predictions any analyst could have made in all of sports.

-Gronk’s touchdowns dances have been talked about enough at this point, but I just wanted you to know that when he caught his second TD and did that suggestive hip-thrusting dance, I made a note in my journal that said, “Gronk’s 2nd TD dance?? Rubbing his cock all over a stripper’s face? Tits??”

-I haven’t been this happy about a Patriots win in a long time. They did an incredible job over the first seven weeks lowering my expectations to the point where I had none. And then on the Rams’ first drive when Sam Bradford connected with Chris Givens on a 50-yard touchdown, my expectations went even lower than “no expectations.” So to have the defense not let up another long pass all day and come away with a 45-7 win, it was quite the surprise. I will continue to expect only the worst from them.

-I thought I had an off week in terms of my picks against the spread. After all, I bragged about how locked in I was last Friday and came out of the weekend with a modest 9-5 record. But I suspect a lot of people missed badly this weekend because somehow in my two Pick ‘Em leagues, I still came in 2nd place. Let’s all try to be better next week, OK?

-My record for the season now sits at 67-46-5.