General BS

Movie Review: The Wolf of Wall Street…A Scary Good Time

Posted on by Ross Gariepy

wolf of wall street

I’ve been sitting on this Wolf Of Wall Street blog review for a couple weeks because I have no idea where to rank it on my world-renowned Watchability Scale. Sometimes I think it’s a brilliant movie. Other times I think it’s terrible. But I’m probably going to play it safe and rank it somewhere in between those two extremes.

The best, yet vaguest, description I can give is that it’s like nothing you’ve ever seen before.

Since I saw it in early January and was fooling myself into thinking I’d start dieting for my New Year’s Resolution, I went into this movie telling myself I would only eat one Peanut M&M each time Leonardo DiCaprio’s character partakes in illegal drug activity. I ended up in the hospital after the first hour with what the doctors described as an aggressive case of chocolate poisoning.

For those who have seen Boiler Room, I can only imagine Wolf was dreamt up by someone watching that film while doing a bunch of cocaine and quaaludes. And then he decided, “What if the main character was as fucked up throughout the entire movie as I am right now?”

For those who haven’t seen Boiler Room, Wolf is a movie about an ambitious young stock broker, Jordan Belfort, who finds ridiculous success in the 1990s by participating and then running an illegal stock brokerage. He and his colleagues make such a crazy shit ton of money that they can afford to throw parties with booze, drugs, midgets and hookers almost nightly. And then the FBI starts investigating them and the whole damn thing unravels.

A few interesting notes from the different Wikipedia pages I explored in order to research this movie:

  • It’s categorized as a black comedy. The plot description I just gave you might not sound like there’s any humor, but trust me, this was one of the funniest movies I’ve ever seen.
  • It is now ranked atop all movies in terms of how many times the word “fuck” is used (unless you count a documentary named Fuck–A documentary on the word).
  • After you’ve seen this movie, you’ll think there’s no way in hell what you just saw actually happened. But my look into the real Jordan Belfort revealed that almost all of this insanity did take place, without much exaggeration by Martin Scorsese, the film’s director.

My biggest problem with the movie is its three-hour run time. Here’s how it breaks down:

  • 1st hour: Possibly the finest 60 minutes in movie history. Never laughed so hard.
  • 2nd hour: A solid story of your classic rise and fall of an extremely flawed characte (lots of similarities to Blow).
  • 3rd hour: Atrocious, heavy, slow and loooooooong, ultra-depressing.

So if you only have two free hours but really want to see this movie, go for it. You won’t miss a thing.

And that first 60 minutes, the funniest hour in movie history, is anchored by the single greatest scene in movie history (from a comedy standpoint). For those of you who have seen Wolf, I’m talking of course about the lunch date between Leo and Matthew McConaughey. There’s no way to explain what goes on except to say that McConaughey’s character baptizes DiCaprio/Belfort via an extremely strange ritual. These five minutes alone are worth the price of admission.

You should see this movie if: You want to see some of the funniest yet craziest shit any movie has ever tried to pull off; you (like me) have seen every movie Leo’s ever been in minus The Man In The Iron Mask; ditto for seeing every Scorsese movie; if you love McConaughey, even though he’s only in the movie’s first 45 minutes; you love films about excess, flawed characters and an epic crash & burn; you’re able to take serious subject matter lightly.

You should not see this movie if: Pretty self-explanatory, isn’t it? If the drug-fueled exploits of a womanizing criminal isn’t your cup of tea; if swear words, specifically FUCK, make you uncomfortable; more importantly, if copious amounts of breasts and vaginas on the big screen make you uncomfortable; if you don’t like to see bad people prosper; if you or someone you’re related to got jobbed by the real Jordan Belfort’s fake brokerage in the 90s; if you hate humor; if you’re a super serious person who can’t take a light approach to an immoral film.

While the final third of the movie is nearly unwatchable, I’m still giving Wolf of Wall Street a 7.5 out of 10 on the Ross Watchability Scale (RWS) because humor triumphs over boring tragedy in my opinion.

When I returned to work from Christmas break, several of my coworkers had seen both Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle. All of them agreed that Wolf was significantly better. Those people are certified morons. If you’re choosing which Oscar-nominated film to see this weekend between the two, please do yourself a favor and see American Hustle. But sometime shortly after that, go see Leo play the Big Bad Wolf.

NFL Championship Weekend Picks: Mailing It In With Random Thoughts

Posted on by Ross Gariepy

old-man-crystal-ball

When I skipped out on writing the NFL recap blog earlier this week for absolutely no good reason, I intended to write a mega blog for the Championship Round to make up for it. Then a little thing called crazy startup software sales happened and the next thing I know it’s 11pm on Thursday and I have to be back at work in seven hours. And absolutely no blogging and no research is started yet. Should be another awesome set of picks from the world’s most misguided football prognosticator. I swear this whole “working” thing will be the death of me. I have a new plan: make a bunch of money over the next seven months (illegally, most likely), quit my job, and ponder my next move while I spend the entire 2014 football season unemployed.

When I’m forced to write quickly and carelessly, it’s the structure and creativity that go out the window. So here’s my brain dump of football thoughts.

Bright Green With Envy

I’m totally cherry picking a topic that Dan Patrick and his co-hosts talked about earlier this week on the Dan Patrick Show, but I’m very intrigued by this question: If you could become the head coach of any NFL franchise right now—and inherit every current attribute of that team such as roster, salaries, draft picks, ownership, stadium, location, fan base—which would you pick?

The guys on that radio show took roughly seven seconds to think it over and unanimously came to a decision: San Francisco or Seattle. I think they leaned slightly towards Seattle between the two, but they all agreed those two franchises are in the best shape for the next decade. And it’s tough to argue with that, right? The overall talent of both teams, the franchise QBs who are extremely cheap right now, the ownership that stays out of the way, the locations/modern stadiums (coming soon to the Bay Area)…there’s not much missing.

And the key really is the quarterbacks. Think about the opposite of that first question. Which franchise would you least want to take over as head coach for right now? Jacksonville, Oakland, Cleveland and Buffalo are the obvious ones. But how about New England and Denver? Who would want to commit to coaching there right now with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning sprinting towards their respective finish lines? You’d rather take your chances on a Detroit or even Miami because they might have franchise QBs locked up for the next handful of years.

Just an interesting twist to this weekend. One game features two of the best young teams in football who look like they’ll be the envy of the league for years to come. And the other game features two perennially great teams that are going to be toxic in a couple years when the two Hall of Fame QBs sail off to retirement.

For the record, if I was hammered at a bar and trying to impress people by being risky with my answer, I’d say St. Louis is the team I’d most want to coach…up & coming defense, 437 draft picks over the next three years thanks to the Redskins, Tavon Austin, a not-totally-a-bust-yet Sam Bradford, a great sports city and an owner who stays out of the football business (I have to assume since I’m not sure I’ve ever seen the owner of the Rams).

This Caused Me To Remember That Dichotomy Is A Word

Look at the differences between these two games on Sunday:

  • Young Guns / Old Balls
  • Blacks / Whites
  • Non-Super Bowl Winners / Super Bowl Winners
  • Mobile / Lost The Use Of Their Legs 6 Years Ago
  • Extremely Healthy Teams / Infirmary Central
  • Glorified Cheerleaders As Coaches / Old School Coaches
  • etc, etc, etc

Fun With Meaningless Numbers

Each team’s record against the spread this year:

  • San Francisco: 11-5-2 (2-4-2 against playoff teams)
  • Seattle: 11-6 (4-2 against playoff teams)
  • Denver: 10-7 (4-4 against playoff teams)
  • New England: 9-8 (3-2 against playoff teams)

Current Super Bowl Odds:

  • Seattle +200
  • Denver +210
  • San Francisco +275
  • New England +425

Bet I placed on Wednesday night: Exact Super Bowl Outcome – New England over San Francisco (10/1 odds)

Want to know how locked in I was last year at this time? After a 4-0 Divisional Round against the spread, I went 2-0 in the Championship Round while also predicting San Francisco to beat Atlanta 27-23, with the Falcons narrowly covering the 4.5 points. What happened? The 49ers won 28-24, with the Falcons narrowly covering the 4.5 points.

Want to know how locked out I am this year? My playoff record sits at 2-3-3, and it’s taking every ounce of my energy just to keep pace with my girlfriend, who is 3-2-3 against the spread.

Here’s a ridiculously useless tidbit: In both rounds of the playoffs, there was one game where I covered in my Pick ‘Em league, I pushed my blog pick, and I lost my actual bet. In the Wildcard Round, it was the Kansas City-Indianapolis line that fluctuated across a couple points. Last weekend it was the Saints-Seahawks game. Maybe it’s not meaningless. Maybe that means one of this weekend’s games will do the same thing.

Maybe I Overextended Myself A Bit?

By the time last Sunday arrived, I had bets on Carolina to win the Super Bowl (40/1 odds), Carolina vs New England exact Super Bowl matchup, Carolina vs the spread in their Round Two game, Carolina in a parlay for their Round Two game. I probably should have alerted everyone to this ridiculous confidence in the Panthers so you could have accordingly dumped your rainy day money on San Francisco.

This Seems Super Fair

This weekend’s referees are Gene Steratore (NFC) and Tony Corrente (AFC). And would you look at that…Corrente was the head referee for Peyton Manning’s two AFC Championship wins. Seems fair.

The Picks

New England @ Denver (-4)

I legitimately gasped when I heard last Sunday that this game opened with Denver as a seven-point favorite. There’s no logical reason to think this would be decided by more than three points. But any deep analysis on these two games is pointless. Four teams left. The four we expected at the beginning of the season. All of them have plenty of reasons to think they can win the Super Bowl. It’s impossible to make a truly educated guess on either of these games.

For Patriots fans who need some reassurance, just know that the Pats were 3-0 this year when I watched them in San Francisco. That’s where I’ll be this weekend. That’s as close to a guarantee as I’m willing to give.

For the Broncos to win, I think they simply need to play at at a very high level, which they’ve done about a dozen times this year. For the Patriots to win, I think someone random’s going to have to step up because the Broncos might be able to take away Julian Edelman and the run game. It just feels like Kenbrell Thompkins or Aaron Dobson (if he plays) are going to need to make a major impact.

Unfortunately I have more faith in a good Denver showing than I do in a Thompkins or Dobson breakout performance. I’m taking Denver to win 36-33, but the Patriots will cover.

San Francisco @ Seattle (-3)

I liked San Francisco a whole lot better when it was 3.5 points. This seems like the game where I’ll win on San Francisco in Pick ‘Em (+3.5), push on my blog pick (+3) and lose on the bet I’ll probably make Sunday morning (+2.5 possibly).

It would be so like the NFL for all of the favorites to win in Round Two, roping everyone into betting on the favorites in Round Three only for the underdogs to win outright.

Actually, let’s go with that. I’m going for the 49ers-Patriots Super Bowl. San Francisco wins 26-24, and I’m going to change my original prediction and say Patriots win 34-28.

Based on how things have gone this year, I don’t at all mind going out on a losing note with these risky picks.

My Girlfriend’s Quick Picks

(Full Disclosure: I woke her up at 12:15a.m. when I was done writing this blog to get her picks. Somehow it didn’t feel like her heart was in it as much as normal.)

New England over Denver (-4): “Because the Broncos always used to win, and now the Patriots always win. So the Patriots are gonna win.”

San Francisco over Seattle (-3): “Because I really do think the Drew Bledsoe curse is on him…Pete Carroll.” (It’s OK to not know what the hell she’s talking about here. I don’t think she knows either.)

For Your Consideration: Prop Bets I Love This Weekend

Will either game go to Overtime? YES (+500)

That’s it. Bet the farm on overtime.

Enjoy the Silver Fox on Silver Fox & Young Buck on Young Buck action on Sunday!

NFL Playoffs: Round Two Picks & What Each Team Is Playing For

Posted on by Ross Gariepy

old-man-crystal-ball

Well now what the hell are we supposed to expect?

Can Round Two possibly top Round One? Would we need a triple overtime in one game and a team rallying from 75 points down in another game to restore proper order to the football world?

Typically the Divisional Round is the best weekend of football out of the entire season.

For whatever reason, this round always produces high-scoring games, unlikely overtimes and Mark Sanchez defying the odds (luckily we don’t have a quarterback left who would fit that mold of “player who has no business leading his team to a conference championship game” since the Chargers knocked Jason Garrett’s illegitimate son out of the playoffs last week).

In six of the past eight years, the eventual Super Bowl Champion went on the road and shocked a heavy favorite in this round (so, yeah, you might want to bet accordingly if San Diego, Indianapolis or New Orleans somehow live to see the next round).

What we get in this second round is the top four teams in the NFL, coming off a well-earned bye week, hosting teams that truly believe they can replicate all those past Champions who had to win four games to take home the Lombardi Trophy. And in many cases we get heavy favorites in this round because those top teams usually dominate at home (not to mention teams like this year’s Chargers always sneak by the first round and the experts think they’re due to get killed by the better seed).

But almost never do things work out for all the favorites. In fact, the last time all four home teams advanced from this round was 2004. No matter what your research and analysis tells you, I’d shy away from backing all four favorites this weekend.

Here’s a random fact for you: There are four teams remaining who also appeared in last year’s final eight, and each of them is the favorite in their respective game this weekend (Denver, New England, Seattle, San Francisco).

There are three other teams who at least have playoff experience. The Saints won a Super Bowl and have been a perennial playoff team under Sean Payton. While it’s been a couple years since the Chargers made the playoffs, Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates and others have plenty of experience in the postseason. And second year quarterback-coach combo Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano popped their playoff cherries last year.

That means the only true virgin remaining is Carolina (somewhere a vampire licks his lips and sets his GPS for Charlotte, North Carolina).

In the “cream of the crop” department, keep in mind that the top six teams in Football Outsider’s DVOA rankings are still in the playoffs. Two of this weekend’s matchups feature head-to-head battles between that cream: New Orleans @ Seattle and San Francisco @ Carolina. The only two teams that didn’t rank in the top six are San Diego 12th) and Indianapolis (13th).

So before Saturday arrives and the bitching & moaning about your picks, your bets or your team begins, take a moment to appreciate what we have here: Eight incredibly sexy football teams. If you wanted to argue that we have six sexy teams and then San Diego and Carolina, I wouldn’t fault you for it.

Let’s take a quick look at the story lines and what’s at stake for these remaining teams as they aim for a Championship:

Denver: Peyton Manning’s quest for a second Super Bowl. Another record-setting offense looking to go all the way. Putting to rest any debate around who’s season was better, 2013 Manning or 2007 Brady, by actually finishing the job. The Broncos overcoming a midseason temporary coaching change because of John Fox’s emergency heart surgery. John Elway becoming even more of a legend after his handpicked coach and quarterback validate his choices with a Super Bowl win. Manning and the offense winning it all with that defense. The Broncos definitively being able to say they got the better end of the Champ Bailey for Clinton Portis deal (just joking, that was never in question). Wes Welker getting his hands on the Lombardi Trophy that twice eluded him in New England. The entire fan base forgetting to show up to the victory parade because pot is legal in Colorado and the amount of gravity bong rips they’d probably all be taking over the 36 hours immediately following Super Bowl Sunday would reach dangerous levels.

New England: The legacy-cementing 4th Super Bowl win for Brady and Belichick. Patriots fans finally having that 4th one to end the debate around who’s the best QB and best coach of all time. Belichick’s finest work as a coach paying off in the biggest way. Another argument forever ending if this particular team wins: How much does a coach really matter in the grand scheme of things? The “next man up” philosophy is more than just a company line, but the media would beat us over the head with it throughout the month of February. The look Belichick would give an over aggressive reporter who brings up Aaron Hernandez in the post-Super Bowl press conference. Gronk somehow parties even harder after they win the title. Stevan Ridley’s vindication. Danny Amendola doing what Wes Welker couldn’t do….Julian Edelman doing what Welker couldn’t do. The awkward moment on the Championship DVD where the narrator talks about the Patriots’ preseason “challenges” while they show a shot of the Bristol County Jail.

Indianapolis: Andrew Luck winning it all in year two. Luck equalling Manning in Lombardi Trophies. Luck solidifying his status as the person you would pick to build your team around over any other player. Trent Richardson getting his much-deserved Super Bowl win (another bad joke). Reggie Wayne missing out on the magical ride. T.Y. Hilton becoming a household name and being over-drafted in every 2014 fantasy league. Some of Manning’s old teammates, like Robert Mathis, getting their second Super Bowl with the new Manning. Chuck Pagano’s made-in-Hollywood ride from leaving the team to receive cancer treatment to hoisting the trophy just 17 months later. Jim Irsay taking too much credit for the successful season (though I still argue his “tribute to Manning” in the Colts’ win over Denver was all part of his master plan to get Manning off his game).

San Diego: The 9-7 team that nobody wanted in the playoffs wins it all. Philip freaking Rivers finally goes all the way in the first year where no one gave him a chance. Mike McCoy easily escaping the shadow of Marty Schottenheimer and Norv Turner. Grizzled veteran Antonio Gates getting his moment of glory. LaDanian Tomlinson sheds a tear of self-pity somewhere in California. Seeing Rivers have no one to hate on for a brief moment, and yet, I bet his facial expression would still look like that of an infant throwing a tantrum.

Seattle: Bringing a championship to a long-suffering city that loves its sports. Proving that with a little bit of adderall, you can achieve anything. Russell Wilson solidifying his spot as “best young quarterback.” Defense can win championships. Home field advantage is still something that matters. The first team to really be the “best regular season team” and finish it off with a Super Bowl win in many years. Pete Carroll wins the big one, but three years later is forced by the NFL to vacate all the playoff wins. Humblest guy on the planet Richard Sherman gets to the top of the mountain (and of course stays humble in victory). Beast Mode proves that running backs can matter. Carroll immediately retires to chase his true dream, acting in a movie called “Cheerleaders In Khakis.”

Carolina: Cam Newton gets some real credibility among all the other sexy young quarterbacking names. He gets his name alongside Doug Williams as the only black starting QBs to win a Super Bowl. Ron Rivera, who came into the 2013 season presumably on the hot seat, gets Carolina its first Championship in franchise history. Steve Smith punches a reporter instead of saying “I’m going to Disney World.” The general public finally figures out which Carolina the Panthers play in (it’s the north one). Defense can win championships.

San Francisco: The 49ers’ first Championship since Steve Young. Colin Kaepernick becoming that best young quarterback (seems like that title is really up for grabs in these playoffs). Frank Gore, maybe the player most deserving of a Super Bowl in these playoffs. San Francisco tying Pittsburgh for the most Super Bowl wins (6) in NFL history. A final tribute to Candlestick Park. Jim Harbaugh gets the thing his brother took out from under him last year. Anquan Boldin wins two consecutive Super Bowls on different teams (has that ever happened?).

New Orleans: Drew Brees gets #2, this time without the luxury of playing in the Superdome at any point in the playoffs. Sean Payton proves his ridiculous value. Vindication for the Saints from the Bountygate debacle. The team that couldn’t win on the road wins four outdoor road games. Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Darren Sproles, et al become the envy of offensive coordinators everywhere. Rob Ryan twirls his hair around his finger in the post game press conference. Rob Ryan parlays the Super Bowl win into a failed head coaching job. Rex Ryan calls a press conference to congratulate his brother, but also to say he’s looking forward to beating the Patriots next year.

Oh, you wanted some picks…

Here you go. Round Two picks:

New Orleans @ Seattle (-8) – Saturday, 1:35pm PST

What happened in their regular season matchup: Whether it was due to traveling to the Pacific Northwest and playing a road game in the toughest environment, or because it was Thanksgiving weekend and the Saints accidentally poisoned themselves with tryptophan right before kickoff, or because Seattle’s just really that good…the Saints got crushed in week 13 against the Seahawks, 34-7. Offensively the Saints had their worst performance in the eight-years that Sean Payton’s been head coach (188 total yards, 7 points). And New Orleans did nothing on defense to slow down the Seattle offense. The Seahawks gained 429 total yards while Russell Wilson walked away with 310 passing yards, three touchdowns and a 139.6 passer rating. You can absolutely point to one or two fluky things that went Seattle’s way on that Monday night: On the Saints’ second drive of the night, Brees was stripsacked and Seattle took it back for a defensive touchdown. Then in the 3rd quarter with the game already getting out of reach, Russell Wilson had one of the luckiest touchdown passes I’ve seen. It was this eight-yarder to Derrick Coleman. Unfortunately for the Saints, even if those two plays go their way, it’s only a 10-15 point swing in the best case scenario, meaning they still would have lost by a couple touchdowns.

What I think will happen in this game: In my week 13 preview I was astounded that the Seahawks were giving six points against an “evenly matched Saints team.” I thought it should have been a three-point line. Obviously I went big on New Orleans and got burned. This time the line seems more appropriate. I’m not buying into the Saints in this game just because they won a road game in Philly last week. In fact, getting that road monkey off their back or not has no bearing on how I pick this game because the Eagles and Seahawks are so far apart in talent and execution. The Saints are going up against the very best in the toughest stadium to visit in the NFL. By the time week 13 had rolled around, Seattle had already lost Brandon Browner for the season. So they’ve already shut down this Saints offense without a full arsenal. Oh, and there’s another potential wrinkle in Seattle’s favor this time…Percy Harvin is apparently practicing at full speed this week. Scary for the whole league.

While I expect New Orleans to play better overall and make it a closer game, it’s not going to be nearly close enough. I’ve got Seattle covering with a 42-27 win. The more you hear people talking themselves into the Saints possibly winning four outdoor games to capture their second Super Bowl, the more confident you should feel that they’re not going to advance past this round.

Indianapolis @ New England (-7.5) – Saturday, 5:15pm PST

What happened in their regular season matchup: There was no regular season game between these two teams. This is the only second round game not featuring a rematch of a regular season game. But the Patriots stomped the Colts 59-24 during the 2012 regular season if that means anything to anyone.

What I think will happen in this game: First, I’d like to pause and say WHAT THE FUCK DID THE PATRIOTS DO TO DESERVE THIS??? After all the in-season injuries, sure, why not add Brandon Spikes to the injured reserve during the bye week! At this point, might as well put the top 53 players on the IR and see what the second string, practice squad and street free agents can do against Indy. In case you’re wondering why us Patriots fans would care about Spikes, you should know that ProFootballFocus.com graded Spikes out as the sixth-best inside linebacker in the NFL this year and the best against the run. The best linebacker in the NFL against the run. Boom. Done for the season.

In less important news for regular Patriots fans but something that provides an interesting dilemma for me…Deion Branch is now a member of the Colts. Why a dilemma for me? My one authentic Patriots jersey is a #83 Deion Branch jersey. His original number when the Patriots picked him in the 2nd round of the 2002 draft. I bought his jersey after the third game of the ’02 season. So do I wear my 11-year-old jersey on Saturday because in my opinion it’s been a good luck charm over the years? Or do I keep it in the drawer for the first time in my decade plus of owning it because Branch is now on the opposing team? What in god’s name do I do? Someone help!

The analysis on this one is pretty easy. This current installment of the Patriots doesn’t blow out good teams. They also struggle defensively because of the 25,000 injuries they’ve sustained on that unit this year. All they seem to do is pull close wins out of their collective ass. They went 8-0 at home this year. Andrew Luck and the Colts in a rainy, windy, outdoor January game is very different than Luck and the Colts in the comforts of the Oil Rig. I love that this is 7.5 points and not something tempting like 4 points. I’m taking the Patriots to win but not cover, 27-23.

San Francisco (-3) @ Carolina

What happened in their regular season matchup: One can only hope we see a repeat of the barnburner these teams put together in week 10. Cam Newton threw for 169 yards. Colin Kaepernick threw for 91 yards. Yep, didn’t crack triple digits. They were a combined 27-of-54 passing. Newton ended up with a 52.7 passer rating; Kaepernick’s was 42.0. The two teams combined for 401 yards. Good lord. Maybe I go for a hike on Sunday morning instead? Oh, the Panthers won at San Francisco, 10-9. I guess that detail’s important.

What I think will happen in this game: No idea, really. If there’s a stay away game in round two, this is it. Has any wildcard team ever been a back-to-back road favorite in the playoffs? Doubtful. Are the 49ers this year’s “wildcard team that seems underwhelming during the regular season but makes a deep playoff run?” Possibly. Could they host one final surprise NFC Championship game at Candlestick Park? Doubtful, considering it would require the Saints to win in Seattle. And how about the Panthers? Are they our best guess for the team that gets a bye but totally lays an egg in their first playoff game? Maybe. As an inexperienced team that can’t throw the ball, they’re certainly a good candidate.

Early in the week I was leaning towards San Francisco. Middle of the week I was leaning towards Carolina. I flipped and flopped over and over. And then I remembered my 40/1 odds preseason bet on Carolina to win the Super Bowl. And I swung back to Carolina hard. But finally I thought…If the 9ers don’t win this game, which road team is winning this weekend? Because mark my words, one of them always does…except, almost never is there a home underdog in this round of the playoffs. So we could have all four home teams win but still have an underdog win outright. And by the way, the 49ers beat a Green Bay team by three points last week that was without Clay Matthews for the entire game and Sam Shields (one of their best defensive backs) for most of the game. That Packers team was not playing at nearly full strength. People are riding high on San Francisco, but the Panthers will be a completely different experience. Give me my long shot Super Bowl ticket to keep moving on. Carolina wins 26-21.

San Diego @ Denver (-9)

What happened in their regular season matchups: In game one, the Broncos won 28-20 in San Diego. Manning put up 330 yards and four touchdowns; Rivers was a pedestrian 19-of-29 for 218 yards. Somehow the Chargers had the ball for 16 more minutes than Denver and still lost by eight. In the rematch, the score was similar (27-20), and the visiting team won again…this time it was the Chargers. Once again San Diego dominated time of possession (had the ball for nearly 18 minutes longer than Denver), and once again Rivers was pedestrian. But it was the Charger running game (177 yards on 44 carries) that won it for them.

What I think will happen in this game: C’mon, at this point would you dare bet against San Diego? They were left for dead after barely sneaking into the playoffs. Cincinnati was supposed to crush them. But they didn’t. Now the Broncos are supposed to grab an even more-lopsided victory. But it’s not just Manning vs Rivers in this game. It’s an improved defense (San Diego) vs a declining defense (Denver). It’s a divisional rivalry that often sparks close games. Just like the Patriots, I think Denver pulls out a win, but doesn’t cover. The Broncos take it 41-34. And finally, we’re set for a turn-back-the-clock Brady vs Manning showdown for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. It makes perfect sense.

If things play out exactly how I expect, we’re going to see two great Championship Gaames: Carolina vs Seattle, New England vs Denver. Why am I picking chalk with the #1 & #2 seeds of each conference advancing? Because this has been an abnormally strange year in the NFL, and the strangest thing that could happen this weekend is all four top seeds winning.

My Girlfriend’s Quick Picks for the week:

New Orleans over Seattle (-8): “Because Pete Carroll is the Drew Bledsoe of coaches.”

Indianapolis over New England (-7.5): “Because I hate Indy but they love me.”

Carolina over San Francisco (-3): “Because San Francisco is flying a little too close to the sun after last week, and no way they eke out back-to-back games. They’ve reached their eke limit.”

San Diego over Denver (-9): “Because when’s the last time Denver wasn’t a double-digit favorite? They’ve gotta have a bad game at some point.”

It’s not lost on me that my girlfriend just picked all four underdogs to cover. Perhaps this is the week I’ve been waiting for to do a four-team underdog parlay?

By the way, I’m kind of a prop bet master at this point. If you want to know what I’m thinking with prop bets, you should follow me on Twitter because I’ll let everyone know on Saturday morning which long shot props are definitely going to pay off.

Enjoy Round Two!

NFL Wildcard Weekend Recap: The Polar Opposite of Last Year’s Opening Round

Posted on by Ross Gariepy

andy dalton

The headline from my 2012 Wildcard Weekend recap said, “About as much fun as week 4 of the preseason.”

I resigned myself to seeing more of the same this year because this first weekend of the playoffs includes all the mediocre teams that only got into the postseason because they out-mediocred the other mediocre teams.

But by some incredible sports miracle, we nearly got the perfect weekend: Three of four games were won on a team’s final drive, including two walk-off field goals; we saw what will easily go down as one of the five most entertaining playoff games of the last 10 years; and we all got to let off our pent up critical energy on a favorite punching bag, Andy Dalton.

The reason it was nearly perfect and not perfect is because perfection would have included logical non-curious officiating assignments by the NFL. Instead we got the increasingly infamous Jeff Triplette handling the reffing duties for San Diego-Cincinnati, in the building where he most recently changed the game with a bad call.

While we got no underdog covers and only one road winner in the 2012 first round, we were treated to two underdogs covering this past weekend, both of whom were road underdogs! Hurray to exciting unpredictability!

Let’s begin with the game that had the seemingly most surprising result, but in reality, maybe we should have seen it coming all along.

San Diego 27, Cincinnati 10

Of course in the current NFL where 99% of the league is below average the team that struggled at home against an opponent full of backups in a week 17 must-win game would go on the road and handle a seemingly unbeatable-at-home Cincinnati team relatively easily.

Gambling 101 teaches us that there will always be one matchup where one of the teams gets picked by 100% of football fans and 100% of gamblers and will promptly crap the bed (think 2010 Patriots at home vs Jets). And if you’re a true veteran, you’ll pay attention in the days leading up to the games and figure out which team qualifies for this  public overconfidence vote and then bet against them hard. That’s your free tip for the day.

If you picked the Bengals to cover, some people are going to laugh at you and be all smug about how they knew all along that Cincy would choke. But I don’t think we should feel bad about picking a Cincy team that had averaged 34 points per game at home during the regular season and would be facing the worst statistical defense in the NFL. I doubt anybody really expected a 10-point turnover fest from Cincinnati.

A few Andy Dalton defenders will probably chalk this up to “one bad game,” and you can call it that if you want, but in the biggest game of his career with the pressure on, he shat himself. Two interceptions, two fumbles (one lost), missed a wide receiver by six yards on the game-losing 4th down 40 yard pass attempt, 67 passer rating, and he might have literally shit himself at some point.

And none of that mentions how 11 of his first 12 completions required the receiver to jump as high as they ever have and lay out for the ball. He was terrible.

Scary thing is I think the Bengals have to roll with Dalton next year. I understand the “this is his ceiling” comments, but it’s not like guys who can immediately get Cincy farther are growing on trees. It’s desperate times for the quality of NFL quarterbacks. Mark Sanchez was going to be the Jets’ starting QB until he had back-to-back playoff-less years. Then they could justify replacing him. Until the Bengals miss the playoffs, Dalton’s gotta stick around.

Maybe it would be possible for management to move away from Dalton if he was solely responsible for Sunday’s embarrassment, but the offensive line was pathetic. Most of the quarterback’s incompletions happened while he was scrambling away from a handful of angry defenders and throwing off his back foot. Awful job.

Pretty coincidental that two constant punching bags this year, Dalton and Trent Richardson, each lost a fumble without being touched by a defender, but Richardson will avoid criticism for the most part because his team ended up winning. As you can see from two paragraphs ago, Dalton is officially “new Sanchez.”

Let’s transition to what was almost dubbed “Trent Richardson’s final game as a Colt.”

Indianapolis 45, Kansas City 44

The final score tells you a lot of what you need to know about this game…it was a barnburner that came down to the very end. But it doesn’t tell you that the Colts dug themselves a 28-point hole at the beginning of the second half.

Other than the “all offense, no defense” aspect, it was good to see the NFL’s other primary calling cards on display in the first game of the playoffs: incompetent refs doing head-scratching things and an aggressive number of players leaving the game with injuries.

I’ve had a hard-on for T.Y. Hilton all season and it paid off in a big way this weekend. The best prop bet I hit was Hilton at 9/1 odds to have the most receiving yards this weekend…224 is more than I could have ever asked.

Weird game from a betting standpoint for me because of how much the line moved throughout the week. In my Pick ‘Em leagues where the lines are set on Tuesday, I had Colts -2.5 and lost. In my picks column that was based on Thursday’s lines, I had Colts -1 and pushed. And when I finally bet the game on Saturday morning, it was a PICK and  I won. Not sure that’s ever happened to me before.

My girlfriend may have outpicked me for round 1 (she went 2-0-2 against the spread, I went 1-1-2), but she also suggested at halftime that the Colts pull Andrew Luck. And yes, I’m so threatened by her dominating me every week that I’ll be throwing her under the bus every time she says something in accurate or makes a bad suggestion.

Regardless of who won and who lost, a standing ovation goes out to both teams for knocking our socks off in the opening game. Couldn’t have asked for a better game to get this madness started.

New Orleans 26, Philadelphia 24

When I traveled around Europe in 2009, I wrote on my blog at one point that “I feel bad for Madrid because it’s probably a great city with a ton of fun stuff to do, but it just so happens to come directly after I spent eight days in Barcelona…so no matter what it’s gonna seem boring.”

That’s what Saturday night’s game was facing. How could it possibly escape the Colts-Chiefs shadow?  It couldn’t. Maybe it was the fatigue from the first game’s excitement, maybe it was the magnum bottle of Sauvignon Blanc I crushed around 5pm, but there wasn’t a ton of note taking going on during this one.

Here’s what’s really bizarre about this round. Three of the four losing teams actually won the turnover battle in their games. That goes against everything we hear about the recipe for winning in the playoffs.

But the part that made sense is that in three of the four games, the team with the better quarterback won (Luck over Smith, Brees over Foles, Rivers over Dalton).

And three head coaches who have been criticized for years for making shaky decisions at the most important moments lost in the opening round (Andy Reid, Marvin Lewis, Mike McCarthy).

File that away…among all the craziness and unpredictability of this season, we might be able to fall back on the trusted QB/Coach competency to make our final seven picks of the season.

San Francisco 23, Green Bay 20

I admit betting on Kaepernick to rush for under 40.5 yards might have been the dumbest bet I’ve ever made. The guy does whatever he wants against Green Bay and I should probably just accept that.

More than anything, I’m glad this was a good game and that the Packers had a chance to win it because it would be terrible if those freezing fans had to endure a 24-point blowout by San Francisco.

And better than just showing up, that crowd was LOUD at all the right times. Good work, Green Bay fans.

I’d like to revisit something I wrote when Aaron Rodgers suffered his collarbone injury in October. I basically said Green Bay fans wouldn’t be in the wrong if they start worrying about Aaron Rodgers’ career and how they’ve only made the conference championship once so far. Rodgers’ career hasn’t produced the perennial playoff run like we all thought. Mark Sanchez has been to more conference title games than Rodgers.

The early lines for next week are out:

  • New Orleans @ Seattle (-8)
  • Indianapolis @ New England (-7.5)
  • San Francisco @ Carolina (PICK)
  • San Diego at Denver (-10)

My initial thought is to bet huge against New England. If you’ve paid attention to the Patriots this year, you know their games almost always come down to the final play. That’s not a recipe for a two score cover. And let’s not forget how scary that Indy offense looked when they finally decided to show up on Saturday.

But maybe like Peyton Manning, Luck is going to struggle against Bill Belichick and the Patriots over his first few years. Last season he threw three interceptions and lost a fumble while completing barely more than 50% of his passes against New England. The Patriots won 59-24.

And maybe outdoors in New England on a January night will have a drastically different effect on the Colts than being at home in the climate-controlled dome. And the early forecast for Saturday is 30-35 degrees and possibly rain/snow.

If you buy into this being another Patriots season of destiny, a throwback to the Championship years, you might be able to justify counting on the Pats to cover with a defensive or special teams play swinging the game.

A final gambling mini-story before I say goodbye: I’ve mentioned in my columns before that during the regular season I let my girlfriend make one ridiculous parlay per week just for fun. Usually I make her bet on at least 10 lines/moneylines/point totals and the $1 wager pays off at roughly $1,500. Except that it never pays off because she’s never won. Well in the playoffs, there are less games to bet on, obviously, so on Saturday morning I made her bet on each line and each point total. So she had eight components to the bet. A $1 wager would only get us $200 in profit. And the poor girl hit seven of the eight picks. Only Cincinnati-San Diego not hitting the over screwed her out of a huge win. And just like I’ve been planning for years, she’s now a bitter gambler just like me.

Round 2 picks coming up later in the week.

NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks: The March to 11-0 Begins

Posted on by Ross Gariepy

old-man-crystal-ball

Welcome to Wildcard Weekend!

Wooooooooohooooooo!!!

Or maybe it’s more like wooooooooh (LOUD MOUTH FART SOUND)…

If your memory is as sharp as mine, you’re probably having trouble getting excited for this first round of the NFL playoffs because last year’s opening round sucked major nutsack.

To refresh your memory:

  • All four favorites covered (Houston over Cincinnati, Green Bay over Minnesota, Baltimore over Indianapolis, Seattle over Washington).
  • Six of the eight teams didn’t crack 20 points (and the two that did only put up 24 points each).
  • Four of the eight quarterbacks threw for less than 200 yards (and not one of them got to 300).
  • There were few memorable individual performances (Anquan Boldin had 145 yards on 5 receptions, Arian Foster had 174 total yards…but you never would have remembered those performances if I didn’t write them here).
  • Three of the four games saw at least a 10-point final margin of victory.
  • While I would argue that there can be plenty of excitement in a blowout, it doesn’t come by way of a 24-9 final score. There wasn’t that 45-28 jaw-dropper like the 2011 wildcard round when New Orleans handled Detroit by 17 points in a super-exciting game.
  • I’m not exaggerating when I say the most interesting moment of last year’s wildcard round was when the Vikings announced just minutes before their Saturday night game that Joe Webb would be starting at QB over the injured Christian Ponder…because for a second there was hope that we’d get treated to a decent game. But then we all saw Webb’s first pass attempt and remembered this was a guy who couldn’t overcome Christian Friggen Ponder on the depth chart.
  • We also witnessed a maniacal head coach blatantly try to ruin the career of one of football’s newest stars when Mike Shanahan continued to march Robert Griffin out onto FedEx Field on one good leg. I’d hate to think the lingering memory of the 2012 playoffs is “the day the RGIII magic went away for good.”

Let’s move on because this is getting depressing.

While the wildcard round traditionally has at least one blowout, there’s reason to be hopeful for a much more entertaining slate of games this time around. Look no further than the offenses that are getting ready to play this weekend. Exit Baltimore, Minnesota and Houston. Enter Philadelphia, San Diego and New Orleans. Seven of the eight teams playing in round one ranked in the top half of the league on offense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings.

That may not seem like a big deal, but for reference, last year’s opening weekend saw five teams in the bottom half of the league from an offensive standpoint.

But I’m getting ahead of myself here. Let’s back up a step and take stock of the entire 12-team playoff field. It’s a particularly intriguing one.

In the AFC we have…um…well, what the hell do we have with these six teams? No overwhelming favorite. No team really peaking on its way into the playoffs. No quarterback having a record-setting year that we can look to as the X factor of the conference (I’m kidding, I’m kidding). Oh, and let’s not forget backbreaking injuries to the top four seeds that could easily be used as an excuse if/when any of them lose over the next month. The AFC is up for grabs because everyone kinda sucks.

In the NFC we have…well, we also have a cluster fuck, but it’s not a cluster fuck of mediocrity. It’s a cluster fuck of competence and goodness. The obvious names that we expected to be here in September are here: Seattle, San Francisco, Green Bay and New Orleans (Green Bay’s 8-7-1 record seems like it belongs in the AFC, but let’s not forget Aaron Rodgers missed eight games). And the two surprises, Carolina and Philadelphia, are beyond scary. The Panthers have won 11 of their last 12 games (while only allowing an opponent to score more than 20 points once…in the loss at New Orleans). The Eagles have won seven of their last eight (including five wins by two touchdowns or more). These two newcomers to the playoff party might be the most dangerous. The sucky part of all this for the NFC teams (but to the delight of us fans) is that wildcard weekend features two incredible matchups between four NFC teams that could lay claim to being the best in the conference.

Can we petition the NFL to have the two AFC games decided by computer simulation while extending the length of the two NFC games to 120 minutes each? Would anybody be upset with that?

Before we jump into this weekend’s picks, let me throw some random numbers and facts out there for you. Use the info, don’t use the info, I don’t care…I already got you to click on this blog post, didn’t I?

  • Since the start of the 21st century, the 2007 Giants was the worst team to win the Super Bowl, coming in at #14 on Football Outsider’s DVOA rankings.
  • This year only the Packers are ranked lower than that mark. They’re 21st in DVOA, but there’s a huge caveat there…Mr. Rodgers’ broken collarbone that forced him to the sidelines for eight weeks.
  • San Diego (12) and Indianapolis (13) are the other two teams walking that fine line between playoff-worthy and mediocrity.
  • Five of the top 10 teams in Defensive DVOA made the playoffs (and eight of the top 16 teams).
  • The two worst defenses, statistically speaking, made the playoffs: Green Bay and San Diego (interestingly enough, if Dallas had won the NFC East instead of Philly, it would be the three worst defensive teams in the playoffs).
  • On the other side of the ball, nine of the top 10 teams in Offensive DVOA made the playoffs.
  • No playoff team is worse offensively than Cincinnati (#17). Kansas City (15) and Indianapolis (13) are close.
  • And looking at the unit that correlates the least to making the playoffs, only four of the top 10 teams in Special Teams DVOA made the playoffs.
  • And two of the 10 worst special teams units made it to January: New Orleans (24) and Philly (25). Since these two teams play each other this weekend, are we going to see neither team being able to return a kick or a punt more than five yards? Or does it swing the other way and we see special teams touchdown after special teams touchdown?
  • Eight of the top 10 quarterbacks according to QBR are in the playoffs.
  • Alex Smith is the worst playoff QB, ranking 20th in QBR.
  • Cam Newton (17) and Andy Dalton (16) are right in Smith’s neighborhood.
  • There are four Super Bowl-winning QBs in the playoffs (Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers).
  • There are three others who have made it at least to a conference championship game (Smith, Rivers, Kaepernick).
  • There are three more who have made the playoffs but haven’t yet gotten past the divisional round (Dalton, Luck, Wilson).
  • And then there are two making their playoff debuts (Newton, Foles).
  • None of that means anything, of course, as Joe Flacco proved last year.
  • Beware of the #5 seeds. San Francisco and Kansas City both deserved to win their respective divisions in a normal year, but they just so happened to be playing in the same division as their conference’s #1 seeds. Even though neither the 49ers nor the Chiefs are going to play a home game in the playoffs, the rest of the league might want to be on high alert still. Both of those teams went 6-2 on the road this year.
  • So did Philadelphia, who will take their road success to Carolina in the second round if they can get past New Orleans on Saturday.
  • If you’re looking ahead to the Super Bowl already, remember that the NFC went 34-30 against the AFC during the regular season.
  • But here’s the interesting thing: the NFC West went a ridiculous 13-3 against the AFC in 2013, meaning the rest of the NFC went 21-27 against the other conference.
  • Does that mean there is one elite division in all of football and seven mediocre ones? Possibly. If Seattle and San Francisco run rampant through the playoffs, we’ll have our answer.
  • The NFC is currently a 2.5-point favorite over the AFC in the Super Bowl.

A final note before we pick these first four games. I have a sports gambling bucket list that is becoming quite the nuisance, mostly because I haven’t been able to knock anything off the list in my 13 years of gambling. One is to win a March Madness bracket pool (if Illinois had beaten UNC in the National Title game in 2005, I would have been able to cross this off the list). Another is to win an NFL Suicide Pool (have never even come that close…I usually make it to week 5 or 6). The third is to go undefeated during a fantasy football season (there’s gotta be a way to do this). And the final bucket list item is one that I plan to take care of over these next five weeks…going 11-0 against the spread in the NFL playoffs. Last year I went 8-3 (after a 1-3 start in Wildcard weekend I’ll have you know). Not bad. But not the bucket list sweep that I need.

Let’s see if I can keep that dream alive beyond the first game of the first weekend of the playoffs (something I couldn’t do last year). Here are the Wildcard round picks:

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-1) – Saturday, 1:35pm PST

What the numbers say: It all tilts in Kansas City’s favor, but not drastically. The Chiefs are the better overall team (7th in DVOA vs 13th for the Colts), the better defensive team (9th for KC, 16th for Indy) and they have the best special teams unit in football (compared to Indy’s 17th-ranked group of specialists). Only the offensive numbers favor the Colts (Indy was the 13th-ranked offense while Kansas City was 15th). While the Colts had a respectable +55 point differential in the regular season, Kansas City blew them out of the water by outscoring their opponents by 125 points.

The Chiefs went a ghastly 1-5 against playoff teams this year (caveat alert: Their week 17 loss to San Diego was accomplished with mostly backups). The Colts went 4-2 against eventual playoff teams. And the Colts crushed the Chiefs in their head-to-head matchup 23-7. And that game was in Kansas City!

You can see why Vegas made this game essentially a coin flip.

What I say: Both teams could play the “no respect” card. The Chiefs won 11 games (starting the season winning nine straight), but are underdogs against a team that looks inferior in every aspect of the game on paper?? The Colts beat the Chiefs by 16 points just two weeks ago on the road, but now they’re only favored by one point at home???

I’m siding with the Colts on this one. They should be favored by the standard three points. The biggest knock against Indy in the regular season is that they played down to their competition. Obviously that’s not a concern in the playoffs. These teams are very evenly matched, and I don’t feel right betting against Andrew Luck in his first home playoff game. He got that “welcome to the playoffs” moment out of the way last year, now it’s time for him to make a mark in the postseason. I’ve got a six-point win for Indianapolis (the same margin of victory they had in home wins against Seattle and Denver earlier this year). Indianapolis covers and wins 27-21.

New Orleans @ Philadelphia (-3) – Saturday, 5:10pm PST

What the numbers say: New Orleans rates out as the 4th best team in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. Philly wasn’t far behind, coming in at #8. While the Eagles have the offensive advantage (2nd vs 5th), the Saints have the edge on defense (10th vs 23rd). The special teams difference is negligible as I already mentioned both teams are in the bottom third of the league in this area. As was the case in our first game, one team had a far superior point differential in the regular season. And once again, it’s the road team that wins in this category (New Orleans’ point differential was +110 while Philly’s was +60).

Neither team was particularly awesome against the other good teams of the NFL. The Eagles went 1-3 against playoff teams while the Saints went 2-3. And if you’re into the “Drew Brees struggles on the road” theory, his team did manage to lose five of its final six road games this year.

What I say: I’m eliminating that “can’t win on the road” factor from my decision…because if you’re going to make a decision based on the Saints’ 3-5 road record in 2013, then you also have to ding the Eagles for only going 4-4 at home. Let’s pretend those two anomalies cancel each other out. I have to pick the Saints in this game. If all other things are equal, I have to go with the offensive juggernaut that’s been an offensive juggernaut for many years…the genius NFL coach who’s been a genius NFL coach for many years…and the Pro Bowl QB who’s been a Pro Bowl QB for many years. What I’m trying to say is that while the Eagles offense, Chip Kelly and Nick Foles appear to be on the same level as their New Orleans counterparts, I just have to give the nod to the guys who have proved it over and over.

You know why else I love the Saints in this game? Because this just might be the overflowing bandwagon game. The one where 85% of the public money comes in on one team because of one statistic or narrative that gets overplayed in the media. Drew Brees and the Saints can’t win outdoors and they can’t win in the cold weather! Turns out they’ll be forced to play outdoors AND in the cold on Saturday night! They have no chance!

Give me a Saints mini-upset as they win 31-26.

San Diego @ Cincinnati (-7) – Sunday, 10:05am PST

What the numbers say: A little closer than you think, actually. The Bengals check in as the 9th best team in the league (17th on offense, 5th on defense and 12th on special teams). The Chargers got all the way to #12 in the league after their late season push (3rd on offense, 32nd on defense and 15th on special teams). The Bengals also had a solid +125 point differential while the Chargers outscored its opponents by only 48.

Both teams were awesome against the stiffest competition: San Diego went 5-2 against playoff teams (including the week 17 win over Kansas City’s B team), and Cincinnati went 4-0 (including a 17-10 win over San Diego in week 13).

The Bengals obviously have a decided advantage…more so than any team in the first two games we previewed, but considering the magic it took for San Diego to even get into the postseason, the gap’s not as large as you might expect.

What I say: As improbable as it seemed a few weeks ago, I kept telling people I was rooting for San Diego to get that #6 seed over the other teams vying for the spot. My thinking was that the Chargers’ offense would be far more entertaining this weekend than whatever the hell Miami, Baltimore or Pittsburgh could throw out there. Unfortunately I no longer think that’s the case. Remember how there must be at least one blowout in every Wildcard round? This is it. Cincy has been a monster at home this year. I don’t totally distrust Andy Dalton at home. There are so many weapons on that offense now. AND despite the numerous injuries, the Bengal defense has still performed  very well in the second half of the year. I don’t see where the Chargers will get the advantage (and if you point out that Andy Dalton just tossed a cool four interceptions in his team’s final home game one week ago, I will quickly change the subject and look at you like you’re crazy).

I hate to do it because I’m not rooting for this to happen, but I’m seeing a Cincinnati cover and win by a score of 34-13.

San Francisco (-3) @ Green Bay – Sunday, 1:40pm PST

What the numbers say: This is a pointless exercise for this game. Aaron Rodgers’ half-season injury makes any numbers Green Bay put up in 2013 completely useless. The Packers were 21st in total DVOA (9th on offense, 31st on defense and 19th on special teams). San Francisco was the 6th best team (8th on offense, 13th on defense and 7th on special teams). The 49ers were certainly much more balanced. And that second-to-last rated defense for Green Bay is scary. You can’t blame too much of that on Rodgers’ injury (sure you can blame some…not as many long offensive drives leading to a more tired defense, etc, etc, etc).

The point differential is another useless stat this time around: San Francisco’s was +134 (the 3rd best mark in football), Green Bay’s was -11 (the only team in the negative in the playoffs).

Somewhat surprisingly, both teams were terrible against playoff teams. The Packers were 0-3 (one of those losses coming when Rodgers was out) and the 49ers were 2-4 (including an opening-weekend win over these Packers in San Francisco).

It’s probably best to ignore all stats related to Green Bay’s season when picking this game.

What I say: It seems like almost every year a wildcard team that won 11 games in the regular season is forced to travel to a divisional champ that finished with only seven, eight or nine wins. And every time, we all bet heavily on the road favorite because “how could they possibly lose??” And every time, we’re proven wrong. Don’t you remember Denver 29, Pittsburgh 23 during the 2011 playoffs? The one where Tim Tebow and the 8-8 Broncos got a huge overtime win against the 12-4 Steelers. Or how about the 2010 playoffs? There was outrage that the 11-5 Saints had to travel all the way to Seattle to face the 7-9 division-winning Seahawks. What a slap in the face. Except that Seattle won by five.

What am I trying to say? That I think Aaron Rodgers finally gets his revenge on San Francisco for not drafting him in 2005 (and more recently, revenge for three straight 49er wins over the Packers, including last year’s embarrassing playoff blowout at Candlestick Park).

Rather than flip a coin on this game, which is what I really want to do, I’m going to use the weather as the final deciding factor. I hear it’s supposed to be something like -45 with the windchill when this game kicks off on Sunday night. I’ll take Rodgers in the elements and count on an incredible 38-35 win for the Packers (and if I turn it out to be wrong, maybe Green Bay will at least only lose by 1-2 points so we can still complete the four-cover weekend).

Just for shits and giggles, here are my girlfriend’s picks for Wildcard weekend:

  • Indianapolis (-1) over Kansas City: “Because every time I pick KC they lose, and most of the time that I pick Indianapolis they win. Natural conclusion, Indy wins.
  • New Orleans (+3) over Philadelphia: “The Saints are one of the teams I tend towards usually, and Philly is one of the teams I tend away from…for no real reason.”
  • San Diego (+7) over Cincinnati: “Cincinnati probably got some snow this week so maybe their muscles are tight from all the practicing in the cold? That’s not good for your body.”
  • San Francisco (-3) over Green Bay: “I just feel like San Francisco wins so much.”

Enjoy the Wildcard round. Hopefully we get some actual wildness this year.

Movie Reviews: A Predictable Disappointment & The Best Movie of 2013

Posted on by Ross Gariepy

american hustle

Maybe on this New Year’s Day you’ve decided to wait out the hangover by heading to the movie theater. It’s not the worst play to be when you’re recovering from too much partying: It’s dark, the seats are generally comfortable, you’re actually encouraged to eat greasy junk food, and you don’t have to speak to other humans.

Or maybe one of your New Year’s Resolutions is to see more movies (that’s a weird one, try harder next time).

Either way, I wanted to weigh in on two movies I’ve recently seen in the theater: Anchorman 2 and American Hustle. 

Anyone who’s already seen these two movies knows it’s a travesty to compare them. One of them is an over-the-top, zany, hilarious and clever film featuring some of the finest actors Hollywood has to offer. And the other one is Anchorman 2.

Let’s just knock this out of the way quickly: Anchorman 2 wasn’t very good. You can convince me that there were enough individual funny moments to make seeing the movie worthwhile, but if you try to argue that it comes anywhere near the brilliance of the original Anchorman, you’ve lost all credibility with me forever. Maybe in similar fashion to the first Anchorman, this latest installment will prove better the more I watch it. But we’ll have to wait and see. For now, I remain unimpressed. I don’t think I laughed once during the opening 25 minutes, and I was secretly rooting for the film to take a drastic turn where it would focus solely on Brick Tamland & Chani’s amazingly awkward love (Steve Carell and Kristen Wiig).

Don’t see this movie in the theater. Save it for a Netflix night when you only want to laugh a little bit. On the Ross Watchability Scale (RWS), I give it a 4.5 out of 10. 

Now that we’ve gotten than bit of unpleasantness out of the way, let’s turn our attention American Hustle, a comedy-drama crime film that will most certainly be getting some Oscar nominations, both for its actors and its director/screenwriters.

Like other David O. Russell films, it’s tough to do the plot justice via a written description. The movie’s loosely based on an FBI operation from the 1970s (so loosely based, in fact, that the movie opens with these words on the screen: “Some of this actually happened”) that involves a couple of con artists working with the Feds to entrap some of New Jersey’s greedier politicians. Except that the FBI agent leading the operation is almost as incompetent and distractable as the con artists he’s supposed to be in charge of. And while Christian Bale’s con artist Irving Rosenfeld and Bradley Cooper’s FBI agent Richie DiMaso appear to be the people in charge of this cat-and-mouse game, it’s really the women that make the big moves and drive the story. Amy Adams is fantastic as Bale’s partner who ends up in the middle of everything, but Jennifer Lawrence steals the show as Bale’s bitter and unstable wife. I’d estimate Lawrence only had 20 minutes of screen time in this entire movie, but she was so good, she’d better win Best Supporting Actress at the 86h Academy Awards in March or else.. (or else what? Or else I will never attend the Academy Awards no matter how bad they want me there. That’s how serious I am about this.)

If the previous paragraph didn’t sound like much of a plot description, that’s because it’s impossible to appropriately capture all the madcap zaniness of this film. Just know that it was super entertaining the entire time, the acting was amazing and the twists and turns at the end completely legitimize this movie as a crime drama.

You should see this movie if: You enjoy incredible movies; you liked other David O. Russell films; you enjoy seeing today’s best actors submitting possibly their best work of their careers; you gravitate towards movies that have the perfect amount of comedy, drama and intelligent plot; you’re as obsessed with Jennifer Lawrence as I now am; you appreciate outrageous comb-overs and perms; you want to see the most glorious usage of constant side boob ever seen on screen.

You should not see this movie if: I don’t know, actually…if you hate good entertainment, I guess?

On the RWS, I give it a 9.5 out of 10. This is now the highest-rated film of all time using the RWS.

Poor Wolf of Wall Street…before I even see it I know it doesn’t stand a chance to match wits with American Hustle.

2013 in Review: My Best & Worst NFL Predictions

Posted on by Ross Gariepy

2013 crystal ball

Yesterday was supposed to be the final day to look back on 2013, but I couldn’t help myself. So many sports analysts/columnists/experts don’t hold themselves accountable for the outrageous predictions they make at the beginning of a sports season. But I spent the last day of the year digging through my archives to find my predictions that were spot on and the ones that were…terrible.

So let’s take one final stroll down 2013’s memory lane…

Best of the AFC Predictions

  • On Denver: “Demaryius Thomas could force his way to the top of the NFL’s WR rankings in ’13.” (His finishing WR ranks: 1st in touchdowns, 9th in receptions, 4th in yards, 1st in yards after catch)
  • On Denver again: “Another 1 seed for Denver.”
  • On Miami: “The Dolphin’s ceiling is 8-8..Tannehill isn’t good even though people talk like he is.” (Admittedly, Tannehill was better in 2013, but he still didn’t crack the top 20 for quarterbacks in completion percentage and passer rating)
  • On New England: “Anyone who thinks their offense won’t skip a beat just because they’ve looked good in the preseason is delusional, naive or in denial. There will be struggles for sure…12-4 seems right.”
  • Team’s records I nailed: Buffalo (6-10), New England (12-4)
  • Playoff seedings I nailed: #1 Denver, #2 New England

Worst of the AFC Predictions

  • On Cincinnati: “9-7 but no playoffs.”
  • On Cleveland: “What if Weeden becomes slightly above average? What if Richardson makes a significant leap in year two? …They could be a surprise division winner. Call me crazy, but I’m going 9-7 for this team.”
  • On Houston: “Seven automatic wins…they’l finish 9-7 and make no noise in the playoffs.” (Technically I could argue putting this in the “best” section because they won’t be making any noise in the playoffs.)
  • On Kansas City: “I’m fine with some improvement, but not playoff-level improvement. 6-10 for the Chiefs.”
  • On the Jets: “This team stinks and won’t do better than 5-11.” (But it’s true!! They do stink!!)

Best of the NFC Predictions

  • On Carolina: “I made a bet in Vegas on Carolina to win the Super Bowl at 40/1 odds.” (Their updated odds as we head into week 1 of the playoffs? 10/1.)
  • On Dallas: “You can pencil them in for 8-8.”
  • On Detroit: “You’ve gotta account for several losses due to boneheaded plays or being underprepared. Don’t see this team making a serious playoff run until they replace the head coach.”
  • On Green Bay: “Their underwhelming playoff results the last two years might allow them to fly under the radar, but don’t sleep on a team that went a combined 27-5 over the past two regular seasons.” (OK, so even I didn’t think they’d fly this far under the radar with that 8-7-1 record.)
  • Team’s records I nailed: Dallas (8-8), St. Louis (7-9), San Francisco (12-4)
  • Playoff seedings I nailed: #1 Seattle, #5 San Francisco

Worst of the NFC Predictions

  • On Arizona: “I honestly think they only have two winnable games, but I’ll give them a 6-10 record because I might be underrating their defense.”
  • On Atlanta: “Significant home field advantage. 10-6 seems right.” (Their final record: 4-12 overall and only 3-5 at home.)
  • On Carolina: “8-8 is doable but I’m actually going with 6-10 for the Panthers because I don’t think they can keep up offensively”
  • On Tampa: “9-7 with an extremely fun offense to watch.” (I doubt any sane person can call anything about that Bucs season “fun.”)
  • On Washington: “Isn’t Washington to win it all at 33/1 odds somewhat intriguing…I say 11-5 and a deep playoff run.” (Wow, ouch, terrible.)

Worse than any of that…

  • On Atlanta: “A tough division might cause them to limp into the playoffs looking more like a pretender than a contender, but the key is just getting there. Atlanta will improbably move through the NFC bracket while the AFC essentially goes as expected. Atlanta beats Denver in the Super Bowl. Count on it.” (Four months later, I’m no longer willing to recommend that you count on this exact Super Bowl matchup. Just a hunch.)

Best of Individual Player Predictions

  • “I’m going with Peyton Manning to lead the league in passing yards.”
  • “I’m going with Peyton Manning to win the 2013 MVP award, and sadly I think that offense might look like the 2007 Patriots when it’s all said and done.”
  • “I’m saying Josh Freeman is the first quarterback benched due to ineffectiveness.” (I may have been wrong about mostly everything else, but you gotta admit, I NAILED these QB predictions!)

Worst of Individual Player/Coach Predictions

  • “Doug Martin is my 2013 rushing champ.” (Hey, he was only 1151 yards shy of LeSean McCoy’s league-leading rushing total.)
  • “I think Cleveland wins the AFC North, and if they do that, Rob Chudzinski automatically wins Coach of the Year so that’s who I’m picking.” (Worst prediction ever?)
  • I predicted Titans owner Bud Adams wouldn’t live to see the end of the 2013 season. (Technically I was right and this belongs in the “best of” section, but it just feels wrong to accurately predict someone’s death, so I’m sticking it on the “worst of” list instead.)

So if you’re keeping score at home, it turns out I’m even worse at preseason predictions than I am at in-season against the spread picks. I’m the worst.

But look out for my AFC & NFC playoff predictions later this week…I can’t be any worse than the regular season!

Week 17 NFL Recap: And Then There Were 12

Posted on by Ross Gariepy

orton

Another fantastic day is in the books for the NFL. Our wallets might have taken a big hit in 2013, but the unpredictability of the NFL season provided the best start-to-finish drama in the history of the league.

It started with the league’s other 31 teams and fan bases taking a big nervous gulp on September 5th, when the Denver Broncos put up 49 points, via SEVEN Peyton Manning touchdown passes, on opening night.

It ended with the league’s other 31 teams and fan bases bursting into laughter on December 29th, when the Dallas Cowboys, via a back-breaking Kyle Orton interception, choked away the NFL’s final playoff spot.

It was a season-long emotional roller coaster for the common football fan.

And week 17 was a microcosm of the whole thing:

In the AFC:

  • Baltimore and Miami, in what turned out to essentially be “win and you’re in” games, both screamed loud enough for the whole world to hear, “Thanks, but no thanks.”
  • The Ravens were gift-wrapped a game in which Andy Dalton threw FOUR interceptions. But not to be outdone, Joe Flacco threw his own handful of picks (only three) and the Ravens’ putrid offense could only muster up nine points off those four Dalton turnovers. A spectacular 222 yards of offense for the Ravens in a must-win game.
  • Meanwhile down in Miami, the Dolphins were busy giving up 374 yards to the Jets, aka the team ranked 27th in offense according to Football Outsiders. In fact, they let Geno Smith finish the game with a QBR of 90.7. His QBR for the year is 35.9. Oh, and Ryan Tannehill joined in on the interception fun from that other game. He had three of them himself.
  • After Pittsburgh took care of business against Cleveland, they got to watch in horror as Kansas City’s backups pissed away a 24-14 4th quarter lead in San Diego. A Chiefs win would send the Steelers to the playoffs. A Chargers win would send them to the playoffs while knocking out Pittsburgh. This was set up for a dramatic ending that everyone would remember for both the Steelers and Chargers rising from the dead and for the final AFC playoff spot being decided on a final play in an outstanding game…And then the refs provided one very important moment that we absolutely needed in week 17 if you were going to dub this a microcosm of the entire season. The refs blew Kansas City’s 41-yard field goal attempt at the end of regulation by not calling San Diego for an illegal formation. The error, confirmed by the NFL, would have given Ryan Succop a 35-yard-field goal attempt, instead of the 41-yarder he ultimately missed.
  • Obscure field goal formation penalty that alters a game and a team’s season. Sound familiar, Patriots fans?
  • So the Chargers get into the playoffs in a somewhat controversial way. They’re 8-8, and while no one expects them to do much, I will say they are easily the most entertaining choice out of those four AFC wildcard contenders. Maybe Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen, a throwback Antonio Gates and the combo of Ryan Mathews & Danny Woodhead can get hot and make a game out of it in Cincinnati this weekend.
  • Nothing else too dramatic in the AFC on Sunday. As Denver (#1), New England (2), Cincinnati (3), Indianapolis (4) and Kansas City (5) all maintained the same seed that they entered the day with.
  • The attention in the AFC is going to be devoted to Denver & New England, due to them getting the byes and the Brady-Manning rivalry, as well as to Kansas City because of the franchise’s immediate turnaround under Andy Reid and the intrigue over how well they’ve played all year. But I want to spend a minute addressing the other two division winners who might get overlooked.
  • Indianapolis: Don’t bank on them in the playoffs just because they’ve won their last three games in blowout fashion (25-3 over Houston, 23-7 at Kansas City, and 30-10 over Jacksonville this past Sunday). Remember that those opponents are two awful teams and one that was resigned to its #5 seed fate and probably didn’t give 100%. No, if you’re going to back Indy in January, it’s going to be because they’re battled-tested (six regular games vs playoff teams) and seem to play up to their competition (4-2 in those six games). And if they get past the visiting Chiefs in the wildcard round, they’ll face a team they already beat this year…the Denver Broncos.
  • Cincinnati: Here’s your case for picking Cincy to win it all. They are 2013’s version of the 2012 Ravens. AFC North team with a solid defense that people wrote off because of injuries (Leon Hall and Geno Atkins = Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, etc). They have a young QB who no one has faith in, and who constantly is the butt of jokes from other teams’ fans (Dalton = Flacco). They’re a team that didn’t impress much during the regular season and that is largely being overlooked as the playoffs begin.
  • The difference is that Cincy has even more offensive talent than last year’s Baltimore team.
  • And remember that there was absolutely no indication heading into last year’s playoffs that Flacco was about to put up 11 touchdowns and ZERO interceptions during a four-game Super Bowl run (working against this comparison is that Dalton has looked far worse this year than Flacco did last year).
  • I doubt I’m going to pick the Bengals or Colts to be that longshot team that gets hot and wins it all, but they’ve each got at least a little case to be made.
  • I was watching Peyton Manning shamelessly pad his passing stats against Oakland when Andrew Siciliano, DirecTV’s Red Zone Channel host, told us, “Call it what it is. The greatest quarterback season in the history of the NFL.”
  • And it’s so true. I’m just glad the stars have realigned back to the good old days when Manning is breaking every regular season record while the entire world greases his pole, and Brady and the Patriots are back to winning ugly, getting lucky and being discounted by the national media.
  • Another sign that glory days might have returned for New England? Brady threw a pass in the 4th quarter that was intended for #45, Williams….Who? Apparently D.J. Williams. Unrecognizable players popping up in key spots = another Patriots Championship Days Staple.
  • Amazingly, LeGarrette Blount is now in the “can’t afford to lose him” conversation for the rest of the year. Just like we drew it up when we penciled the Patriots in for 12 wins and a run to the Super Bowl.
  • One AFC-related gambling note: If you didn’t run to your computer to lock in “Oakland +3 2nd half,” during halftime of the Raiders-Broncos game, then you must hate money. Manning had just broken Drew Brees’ single season passing yards record and added four more passing touchdowns to his collection. The Broncos were up 31-0. Me and my 10 closest friends could have outscored the Broncos in the 2nd half.

In the NFC:

  • Not nearly as chaotic in this conference as a late Carolina push against Atlanta, then a New Orleans blowout of Tampa Bay and an easy Seattle win over St. Louis locked the Panthers into the #2 seed, the Saints into the #6 seed and the 49ers into the #5 seed.
  • But I’d like to take a moment to offer a respectful, professional golf clap to the 2013 Arizona Cardinals. After the 2012 disaster known as “Kolb, Skelton, Hoyer and Lindley try to play QB,” the Cardinals put up a fine season with a serviceable Carson Palmer, a hidden running back gem in Andre Ellington and a nasty defense. Ten wins will get you into the playoffs more often than not, but it wasn’t meant to be this year. Thanks for single handedly making a few NFC teams push themselves through the final week due to your constant nipping at their heels.
  • If you got on the Arizona bandwagon around midseason, you were handsomely rewarded from a betting standpoint. They covered eight of their final nine games of the season. Maybe that’s why I enjoyed them so much. I often picked them as my most confident bet of the week.
  • Kind of couldn’t have asked for a better game then Green Bay-Chicago. There was a ref screw job alert when a Bears player got called for a 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty after trying to pull up on a hit against Aaron Rodgers, only he had to use his arms to break his fall and lightly touched the Green Bay QB. There was also player ineptitude when Rodgers fumbled in the 2nd quarter, only all 22 players on the field thought it was an incomplete pass so everyone awkwardly stood around while the ball was sitting still on the ground and the refs refused to blow a whistle. Of course the Packers finally recognized the situation and promptly scored.
  • These are the kinds of plays that determine divisions when your division is full of hot steaming garbage.
  • For Green Bay’s troubles, they’ll draw San Francisco in the opening round of the playoffs…an opponent that causes Aaron Rodgers to angrily mumble under his breath for three straight hours while Mike McCarthy self-induces a coma to avoid making a game-changing mistake and Dom Capers sits in the coach’s box repeatedly shitting himself.
  • And for our third referee screw job reference of the blog, let’s turn to Al Michaels at Cowboy Stadium:
  • “So the Cowboys get screwed on that situation,” said Michaels when a clock glitch turned into a Dallas penalty with five minutes left in the 4th quarter in the division-deciding game against Philly. Gotta love how the refs did not let week 17 go by without altering the course of events for the 2013 playoffs.
  • Another great NFC game, this time decided by ages-old rule that states, “Whichever man lines up behind center for the Dallas Cowboys shall lose games in the most ball-busting fashion possible…it does not matter if his name is Tony Romo or something goofy like Orton.”

So there you have it, folks. Twelve playoff teams’ hopes and dreams on the line over the next 34 days, and eleven bitter disappointments guaranteed.

We’ll be back with separate AFC & NFC playoff previews later in the week. And I might just dig through the archives to find my best and worst predictions from the 2013 preseason.

Week 17 NFL Picks: All The Insanity of the NFL Season Packed into One Week

Posted on by Ross Gariepy

old-man-crystal-ball

While working off Wednesday’s helpings of pork pie, turducken, mashed potatoes with gravy, broccoli casserole, chocolate cake, ice cream and roughly a dozen jack & cokes by going on a four-mile run Thursday morning, my brother and I tried to talk through every NFL week 17 and playoff scenario…which games could be meaningless on Sunday if a certain outcome happens earlier in the day, if Team X and Team Y both win, who gets the better seed, which matchups in round 1 of the playoffs are possible, in which scenarios would there be a road favorite in that wildcard round, etc, etc, etc.

Problem is, we didn’t come close to covering everything during that 40-minute run. There’s that much chaos going on as we head into the final week of the regular season.

The easiest way to sum up just how unknown things are after 16 weeks of football: There are still 18 teams that could end up in the playoffs, and only one is locked into a specific seed (Kansas City will be the AFC’s #5 seed). While eight teams have clinched spots in general, many of those teams could significantly improve or hurt their seeding depending on how this weekend plays out.

This Sunday is NOT a day to have even the tiniest of distractions pop up unexpectedly (Get the dog walked, get the fridge stocked, get the bed pan/bucket positioned next to the couch, get the girlfriend/wife out of the house…this is the real deal).

Speaking of how life is totally unfair (oh, we weren’t?), did you know that my girlfriend Julie is 27-20-1 against the spread since she started making picks three weeks ago? That’s better than a 57% win rate. Meanwhile I went 21-26-1 over that same time (44.6%), and I’m something like 95-140-5 against the spread for the season.

Effing A, man.

As has been the case for these past three weeks, Julie and I will both be making picks in this column. But if she continues to pick circles around me through the playoffs, there’s a very realistic chance that the 2014 football picks blog will be retitled, “Julie Makes Everyone Rich Without Even Knowing What She’s Doing…And, Yes, Ross Watches From The Sidelines So He Doesn’t Screw Things Up.”

Here’s your weekly reminder that Julie’s comments are in quotes and my unnecessary additions are in parentheses.

Here are the week 17 picks:

Carolina (-7) @ Atlanta

Playoff Implications: Carolina is in no matter what. Atlanta is out no matter what. But a Panthers’ win would lock up the NFC South and guarantee them no worse than the #2 seed. If Seattle loses and San Francisco wins later in the day, Carolina would end up as the #1 seed as long as they win.

Julie’s Pick: Carolina because Atlanta never wins.

Ross’s Pick: With my season picking against the spread already ruined, would it be so outrageous if I base my week 17 picks entirely on what I want to happen rather than on what I think will happen? I didn’t think so. In that case, I’m taking Carolina to win big. It just so happens that I placed a preseason bet on the Panthers to win the Super Bowl at 40/1 odds. Obviously it’s in my best interest for them to get the #1 or #2 seed. Carolina wins 33-13.

Houston @ Tennessee (-7)

Playoff Implications: None. Even if you combine these teams’ wins, they’d still only be on the periphery of making the playoffs. But Houston can lock up the #1 pick in the 2014 draft with a loss.

Julie’s Pick: “What happened to Houston last week?” (They lost.) “Tragically though?” (Uh, yeah, I guess.) “Houston’s due for a pick-me-up. I’ll pick them.”

Ross’s Pick: Tennessee’s 2-5 home record tells me I shouldn’t be giving them an edge just because they’re at home. Two bad teams…Houston looks like it’s all but quit on the season…but this is one of those games where everyone picks the Titans and Houston randomly competes (or even stranger, wins). I’m taking Houston to cover with a 27-24 win.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-7)

Playoff Implications: The 4-11 Browns are obviously out (so much for that preseason epiphany I had that they’d sneakily win the AFC North), but amazingly the Steelers can still get in. They need to win and then need a ton of help: Baltimore, Miami and San Diego would all need to lose. I read one article this week that said Pittsburgh had a 2.6% chance to get this final AFC playoff spot. Based on the season we’ve just endured, you just know the Steelers are sneaking in.

Julie’s Pick: “I have to go back to Cleveland. I haven’t picked them in a few weeks. And I don’t like Pittsburgh very much because they seem so mean…they have such angry uniforms.”

Ross’s Pick: Regardless of the unintentional comedy that’ll come from Pittsburgh getting into the playoffs, which I always root for, I’d likely be taking them in this game anyway because Cleveland has been terrible during its current six-game losing streak (not counting their one-point loss in New England). But I just think we’re getting the most bizarre situation possible out of this #6 AFC playoff spot. The Steelers cover with a 41-10 win.

Washington @ NY Giants (-3.5)

Playoff Implications: None, obviously. The Redskins can get the #1 draft pick if they lose and Houston wins.

Julie’s Pick: “Uh, I feel like Washington has to eventually come through for me. I’m gonna pick Washington because I don’t wanna miss the week where they finally win. I’m stuck with them now.”

Ross’s Pick: What a horrible season for Washington fans. The 3-12 record is atrocious, the RGIII/Mike Shanahan drama is weird and embarrassing, but the 0-5 record against the division might be the worst of all. No division takes as much pride in its hatred for each other like the NFC East does. The Redskins have had plenty of disappointing years in the past decade, but they always get a nice lift when they knock off Dallas or Philly to hurt that team’s playoff chances. This year…0-for-the-division. Gross. Obviously they finish it off by going 0-6 against the division. I gotta take the Giants to cover with a 30-20 win.

Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-6)

Playoff Implications: Cincinnati could be the #2, #3 or #4 seed in the AFC. To get that first round bye, they’d need to win and New England would have to lose. If Cincy loses, they fall to the #4 spot if Indianapolis wins. For Baltimore, Christ, it’s complicated. Step 1 is Baltimore winning. If they win and San Diego loses, they’re in (regardless of what Pittsburgh and Miami do). But if the Ravens win, Miami wins and San Diego wins, they’re out. And if all four teams fighting for that final spot lose, the Ravens would get in.

Julie’s Pick: “Baltimore definitely because I didn’t get to pick them last week (since they were playing New England), and I really like their coach.”

Ross’s Pick: My head tells me Baltimore ends up winning. No NFL head coach is more conservative than Marvin Lewis. Even though the #2 seed is possibly on the line, you just know he’s going to take the cautious route and play conservative while giving some guys a little rest. It’s just the way he operates. But…the combination of the Ravens being so inept (see: their offense doing absolutely nothing in a home game against a terrible Patriot defense one week ago), and my rooting interest of chaos being introduced into this final week, I’m picking Cincinnati to win…The Ravens cover, but the Bengals win 13-9. 

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-11)

Playoff Implications: None for the Jaguars. Indianapolis is currently the #4 seed and could get the #2 or #3 seed still. The #2 seed would happen if they win and both New England and Cincy lose. The #3 seed’s in play with their win and just a Cincy loss.

Julie’s Pick: “Ooooh, Indy’s been on a hot streak so I’m gonna go with them.”

Ross’s Pick: While it’s unlikely the Colts jump up enough to get a first round bye, they have to play this game as if it’s a possibility since the Patriots don’t play until later in the day. But I just don’t have enough faith in this team to think they’ll continue to win big and cover a spread this large. I say Indy wins but doesn’t cover, 24-17.

NY Jets @ Miami (-6)

Playoff Implications: None for the Jets. Miami gets in with a win plus a Baltimore loss, or a win and a San Diego win (weird as that sounds).

Julie’s Pick: “Miami. They’re probably still riding high from that win over the Patriots and there’s still a lot of people in town for the holidays.”

Ross’s Pick: The Jets have lost their last four road games by a combined 89 points. They lost a home game to this Miami team by 20 less than a month ago while the Jets were still playing for a theoretical playoff spot. The Dolphins have everything to play for, including capping off a stunning resurrection after the Jonathan Martin-Richie Incognito fiasco (aka “the media’s latest example of premature ejaculation”). But I’m banking on craziness so I think the Jets pull this off with a shocking 22-21 win. By the way, does Rex Ryan have a case to keep his job if he goes 8-8 with a team led by a quarterback who might actually be worse than Mark Sanchez?

Detroit @ Minnesota (-3)

Playoff Implications: None, zilch, nada. And we don’t even have a Calvin Johnson or Adrian Peterson record breaking watch to make us flip to this game on Sunday.

Julie’s Pick: “I kinda lost a little faith in Minnesota last week.” (Does that make her the only person who still had faith in Minnesota up until last week?) “But I know they’re gonna win if I don’t pick them…soooo, Minnesota.”

Ross’s Pick: If there’s a team that can rival the Redskins’ quittingness at this point in the season, it would be Detroit. The wheels could come totally off now. Ndamukong Suh might murder someone. There’s no ceiling on how low the Lions could sink. I’ve got Minnesota with a 30-13 win.

Green Bay (-2.5) @ Chicago

Playoff Implications: Finally, something simple. The winner takes the NFC North and gets in. The loser is out. If Chicago wins, they could end up as either the #3 or #4 seed. If Green Bay wins, they’ll be the #4 seed.

Julie’s Pick: “Chicago for sure. I just like them.”

Ross’s Pick: Hmm…Do you bank on Aaron Rodgers coming back without much rust after two months off? Maybe the bigger question is could Chicago even win this game if Rodgers wasn’t playing? I’m only slightly exaggerating. How can you have faith in a team that no-showed in a nationally-televised game last week with a chance to clinch the division? But it’s not like Green Bay was setting the world on fire when Rodgers was healthy. While this seems like another instance of the Bears getting screwed…all set up to take the division and they happen to draw the week where an Aaron-Rodgers-dying-to-play comes back…I have a somewhat monetary interest in Chicago. I’ll take the Bears with a 26-23 win.

Buffalo @ New England (-9)

Playoff Implications: Buffalo’s playing for next season. The Patriots could know they are at worst getting the #2 seed before this game even kicks off (by way of the Cincinnati and Indy results), but they’ll still be motivated because the #1 seed is theoretically on the line. They get home field throughout the playoffs if they win and Denver loses.

Julie’s Pick: “I’ll just take the Patriots. I can’t really bet against the home team.”

Ross’s Pick: Let this be your first warning that in some of these afternoon games, you might have to deal with the team you picked looking up at the scoreboard, seeing how the team they’re jockeying for position against is doing, and then pulling all of its starters. For instance, what if New England’s up 17-3 at halftime, sees that Denver is up 35-0 in Oakland, and then sits Tom Brady and the rest of the important players for the second half? How pissed are you going to be if you backed the Patriots? But it’s also very tough to make picks and bets based on these longshot hypotheticals. This feels like a game where New England’s crowd helps carry them to a big win. I’m taking the Patriots to win 30-17.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-13)

Playoff Implications: Of course none for Tampa. The Saints could walk into this game knowing they can’t possibly win the NFC South and get a bye (if Carolina wins earlier in the day), but they’ll still have to play a real game because if they lose and Arizona wins, they’ll miss the playoffs. So if the Saints win, they’re in, with their seeding being determined by the Panthers’ outcome.

Julie’s Pick: (Responding to the large spread…) “Pssh, no. I’ll take Tampa. New Orleans isn’t even consistent enough for me to bet them at -3.”

Ross’s Pick: The only team New Orleans hasn’t really blown out at home this year is San Francisco. That’s completely understandable. For as respectable as the Bucs have played over the past seven weeks, you gotta think the Saints are up for this one and can win by two touchdowns…but this blog is all about wish fulfillment. And my wish is for the Cardinals to make the playoffs. So let’s go with the shocker of all shockers. Tampa knocks off the Saints with a 20-17 win.

Denver (-12.5) @ Oakland

Playoff Implications: None for Oakland. A Denver win gives them the #1 seed. A Denver loss and a New England win gives the Broncos the #2 seed. A Denver loss and a New England loss still gives Denver the #1 seed.

Julie’s Pick: “Denver might win but I don’t think they’re gonna cover. They’ve had like three big spreads in a row. And that’s too many. So I’m saying Oakland.”

Ross’s Pick: Dialing up the wish fulfillment another time…Oakland rolls Denver by a score of 132-6. Oakland with the big cover!

San Francisco @ Arizona (PICK)

Playoff Implications: The 49ers are in the playoffs, but they could get the #1 seed in the NFC (with a win, a Seattle loss and a Carolina loss), the #2 seed (with a win and Seattle loss while Carolina wins) or they could end up as the #5 or #6 seed. Arizona can only get in as a wildcard and they’d need to win while New Orleans loses.

Julie’s Pick: “San Francisco won last week, right?” (Yes.) “Hmm…I think I’ll go Arizona. I don’t think I’ve ever picked them. Roll the dice.”

Ross’s Pick: Here we go Cardinals, Here we go. CLAP CLAP! Give me Arizona with a 32-18 win.

Kansas City @ San Diego (-9.5)

Playoff Implications: Kansas City is locked into the #5 AFC seed no matter what. San Diego can only get the #6 seed if they win while Miami and Baltimore both lose.

Julie’s Pick: “I’m gonna pick San Diego because…since they don’t have as much seasons like Kansas City, they won’t be thrown off by the holiday. Does that make sense?” (No, absolutely not.) “Like everyone’s not gonna have such Christmas hangovers there.” (Now it makes perfect sense.)

Ross’s Pick: Listen, there are a lot of stay-away games this weekend from a gambling perspective. When so many teams’ motivations to put out a 100% effort depend on how another team is performing in a separate game, you’ve got a recipe for a significant dent in your wallet. But nothing screams STAY AWAY like this game. Both teams could have nothing to play for. San Diego could have everything to play for. Kansas City might decide they don’t want a second AFC West rival in the playoffs and give a little more effort than we’re thinking. If this is a game you’re forced to pick before Sunday kicks off, I guess you go with the Chargers thinking either they’ll be playing a meaningful game, or even if they’re not, the Chiefs might rest enough key players that San Diego can still cover regardless of their playoff chances. I’ll reluctantly take the Chargers to cover with a 37-13 win.

St. Louis @ Seattle (-11)

Playoff Implications: None for St. Louis. If Seattle wins, they are the #1 NFC seed. If Seattle loses and San Francisco wins, the Seahawks would fall all the way to the #5 seed.

Julie’s Pick: “Seattle -11??? I’m starting to like St. Louis so I’m gonna pick them. I still think Pete Carroll has bad luck.”

Ross’s Pick: I know you’re expecting me to make up a ridiculous score that has the Rams crushing Seattle (due to my yet-to-be-identified reason for hating that team), but I’m not going to make it that ridiculous. Just a 77-0 shutout by the Rams that causes Seattle fans to panic.

Philadelphia (-7) @ Dallas

Playoff Implication: The NFC’s other “win and you’re in” game. The winner takes the NFC East. The loser is out. If Philadelphia wins, they’re guaranteed the #3 seed. If Dallas wins, they could end up as the #3 or #4 seed.

Julie’s Pick: “Philly’s another one of those teams I just don’t like betting on so I’m going with Dallas. They’ve been good to me in the past.”

Ross’s Pick: This column is being written before we officially know if Tony Romo can play on Sunday. Odds are he won’t be playing, but there’s still a sliver of a chance. Either way the likelihood of Dallas winning seems slim. Them and Chicago seem to be on a similar path of almost making the playoffs but ultimately putting their fans through a ton of agony (even though I picked Chicago I’m certain I’ll be getting that one wrong). Let’s just assume that Romo won’t be playing and Kyle Orton will be a disaster. Philly wins 34-17. And this somehow gives Jason Garrett another year of coaching because he has the no Romo in week 17 excuse???

My head hurts from trying to make picks while simultaneously getting inside the psyche of each team this week. Enjoy the end of the regular season chaos!

Week 16 NFL Picks: Feeling Extremely Emasculated By My Girlfriend’s Dominance

Posted on by Ross Gariepy

old-man-crystal-ball

I wasn’t lying when I said in my week 15 recap column that I’d be abstaining from making picks entirely in week 16 and just letting my girlfriend handle that responsibility. I really saw no reason to continue with the charade of me pretending to know what the fuck I’m talking about. But then the demands from my readers started rolling in. They don’t want me to make picks because they actually value my opinion. They want me to make picks so they can laugh all day on Sunday as they watch Julie out pick me for the second consecutive week. You’re a mean-spirited bunch of assholes, readers. But since it’s the season for giving, I’m going to give you what you want.

But first, a quick look at some interesting playoff scenarios for week 16 that hinge upon some teams playing the early games on Sunday and some teams playing late…

  • If Miami loses at Buffalo in the early time slot, the Patriots will be awarded the AFC East title before they even take the field in Baltimore. But they’d still have plenty to play for because no matter what happens with all the other AFC Division leaders (who also all play in the early games), a Patriots win against the Ravens would keep them in the running for a 1st round bye.
  • There’s really no early/late implications for the other AFC contenders as Denver, Kansas City and Indianapolis all play in the early slot. There’s one other AFC situation worth monitoring and I’ll get to that in a minute.
  • In the NFC, Arizona’s only realistic shot to get into the playoffs is for them to win their final two and then they’d need either Carolina to finish with 11 or less wins (while not winning its division), or the Saints to lose their final two. Regardless of what happens in that Saints/Panthers early game, the Cardinals will be playing for something in Seattle (as if that makes a difference in the probable outcome when a team plays in Seattle).
  • If the Lions and Packers both lose earlier in the day, Chicago can lock up the division with a win over Philadelphia in the Sunday night game.
  • What makes this so interesting is that Philly might actually consider resting some starters and throwing this game. Why?
  • Because if the Cowboys win early on Sunday, then regardless of what the Eagles do in that night game vs the Bears, the NFC East will be awarded to the winner of week 17’s Dallas-Philadelphia game.
  • This same situation potentially exists in the AFC…If Cincinnati loses at home to Minnesota, then regardless of their outcome vs New England, Baltimore will play the Bengals in Cincinnati for the AFC North title in week 17.
  • It’s not crazy to think both the Eagles and the Ravens would take their week 16 games lightly if they knew all that really mattered was the outcome of week 17. Strange shit, right?

If things break right this week, we could be seeing a handful of games in week 17 where the winner gets into the playoffs…Baltimore @ Cincinnati, Philadelphia @ Dallas, Green Bay @ Chicago, San Francisco @ Arizona.

Exciting stuff.

Let’s get to the week 16 picks (you’ll notice I spent almost no time on my picks since I suck at this game).

Also, Julie’s comments are in quotes, mine are in parentheses.

Miami (-3) @ Buffalo

Julie’s Pick: “I’m gonna go Buffalo. I never pick them and they’re a wildcard. Plus they got all that snow.”

Ross’s Pick: Buffalo covers…a combination of actually agreeing with Julie that the cold weather-snow combo could affect Miami, and as a Patriots fan, we could really use a Dolphins loss. Buffalo wins 34-24.

New Orleans @ Carolina (-3)

Julie’s Pick: “New Orleans has not been coming through for me. Carolina’s been coming on strong, right? But I’m going with New Orleans.” (I informed her Carolina lost to New Orleans two weeks ago.) “Oh, I’m going the other way then. Carolina, revenge game.

Ross’s Pick: While I think Carolina is just as good as New Orleans, no team should be allowed to go from obscurity to a top-two seed in the conference. So just because I feel like the Panthers need to earn their stripes, I think they lose this game and end up as the #5 seed. New Orleans wins 28-21.

Dallas (-3) @ Washington

Julie’s Pick: “I’m just so sick of betting on Washington! Ugh! How many in a row have they lost?” (Six.) “Oh, they gotta win then. I’m betting on Washington.”

Ross’s Pick: Two reasons I’m taking Dallas…the Redskins are the worst, and I want to see Dallas blow it at home in week 17 to Philly. Dallas wins 30-17.

Tampa Bay @ St. Louis (-5)

Julie’s Pick: (Immediately after I said “Tampa Bay” and before I said who they were playing, Julie screamed “NO!”) “I’ll take the Rams. They won last week, winning streak.

Ross’s Pick: The Rams have won five games by double digits and have lost five games by double digit. Strange season from them. I think they win another one by double digits. St. Louis wins 29-17.

Cleveland @ NY Jets (-2)

Julie’s Pick: (And she pulls the reversal this time! Immediately after I said “Cleveland” and before I said who they were playing, she screamed “YES!”) “Always Cleveland, never the Jets.”

Ross’s Pick: Jets at home. Sure. Jets cover and win, 6-2.

Indianapolis @ Kansas City (-7)

Julie’s Pick: “Who’s the quarterback for Indy?” (Andrew Luck.) (40 second pause) “What’s Kansas City’s lucky streak been like recently?” (I guess she means winning streak??) “They’ve both won two in a row?” (Wrong, but I love how she’s gaining confidence in her knowledge even if that knowledge is incorrect.) “Indy, Indy, Indy, Indy, Indy….I wanna say Indy, but I’m gonna go with Kansas City. They’re rolling…in the lucky dough.”

Ross’s Pick: I’m buying what Julie’s selling. Kansas City rolling in the lucky dough! Chiefs win 27-19.

Minnesota @ Cincinnati (-8)

Julie’s Pick: “I’m just now starting to like Minnesota. Let’s go with them.” (I mention Minnesota plays in a dome. This week she’s aware that domes are heated and now she’s worried.) “Oooooffff…The warm heated dome team outdoors…Cincinnati has the non-dome advantage, but no, I don’t wanna change my mind. Minnesota it is.”

Ross’s Pick: Too many points for Cincy to be favored by. Minnesota is randomly playing well lately. This is a game that the Bengals would lose traditionally, and since I want to see another “winner takes all” game next week, let’s go with a Minnesota cover and win, 17-13.

Denver (-10) @ Houston

Julie’s Pick: “I need an upset of the week, and I really want Texas to win.” (I call her ballsy for taking Denver to lose twice in a row. She remembers she did that last week..) “Oh, nevermind, Denver won’t do that again. I’m taking the Broncos.”

Ross’s Pick: I’d love to see the Broncos lose this game, obviously. And with Wes Welker out, maybe their offense will struggle as much as it did in week 15. But there’s no way they’re losing this game. Houston will cover, but Denver wins 33-24.

Tennessee (-5.5) @ Jacksonville

Julie’s Pick: “Jacksonville. Because everyone’s gonna be visiting their grandparents in Florida for the holidays.”

Ross’s Pick: I agree…not with her ridiculous logic, but with the pick. Jacksonville is too mediocre to be a 5.5 point underdog at home. Jacksonville gets the win 23-20.

Arizona @ Seattle (-10.5)

Julie’s Pick: “The obvious cold weather factor, but I’m tempted to make this my upset. Yeah, I’m doing it. I’m taking Arizona over Pete Carroll. I like him, but he has a little bit of bad luck it seems.”

Ross’s Pick: Go Cardinals!! Suck a giant [expletive deleted] Seattle!! I’m taking Arizona to cover, and they’re going to win 173-0.

NY Giants @ Detroit (-10)

Julie’s Pick: “OK, OK, this is the upset special. Giants win.”

Ross’s Pick: Detroit might be the most untrustworthy team in football these days. There’s no reason they should lose to the Giants, but maybe they don’t win by a lot. Let’s say Giants cover, but Detroit wins 34-31.

Oakland @ San Diego (-10)

Julie’s Pick: “Oakland’s lost two in a row, right?” (Four, actually.) “Oh I gotta pick Oakland then. They’re angry and playing in their home state, so some fans will be there.”

Ross’s Pick: San Diego could be eliminated from playoff contention before this game starts, right? That makes me nervous about them winning by 10, but then again, I could see a pissed off Chargers team still winning big. San Diego it is, 34-21.

Pittsburgh @ Green Bay (-2.5)

Julie’s Pick: (I made her pick before we knew what the line was.) “It doesn’t matter what the spread is because I’m picking against whoever plays Wisconsin. They got so lucky last week, and they’re still unstable, mentally.” (She’s picking Pittsburgh.)

Ross’s Pick: I’m lucky enough to be picking this game after knowing Aaron Rodgers is out again. And I just don’t think the Matt Flynn train can keep “rolling” like it has. He’s due for a clunker. This will be it. Pittsburgh wins 24-17.

New England @ Baltimore (-2)

Julie’s Pick: “I really like that Baltimore coach. He’s the nicer twin, right? I gotta go Patriots this week. They won’t lose two in a row.”

Ross’s Pick: Patriots win 73-6.

Chicago @ Philadelphia (-3)

Julie’s Pick: “Always Chicago.”

Ross’s Pick: Samesies, always Chicago. Bears win 20-14.

Atlanta @ San Francisco (-13)

Julie’s Pick: “So many big spreads. I have to go with San Francisco. …But a lot of people are leaving for the holidays so it might not be as big of a crowd.” (Then, a sudden epiphany.) “No, but it’s one of the last games at their park. They’re moving, right? That and the combination of people coming into town for the holidays, means San Francisco covers.”

Ross’s Pick: Yeah, San Francisco takes this game 30-13. They’re just too good at home against a shitty Falcons team.

By the way, you’re not getting confidence picks this week because I have ZERO confidence in anything I’m doing related to football right now.

Enjoy week 16.

Movie Review: Saving Mr. Banks (From What? I Couldn’t Tell You)

Posted on by Ross Gariepy

mr banks

I understand the holiday season is all about being thankful for your family & friends and giving to others, butttttttttttttttttttttttttt….what if instead of buying people Christmas gifts, I just spend that money on seeing all the potentially awesome movies that have recently come out or are coming out before the end of the month? Would that be OK? What if I spend the money on the movies but illegally video tape those movies and give copies of them to people as Christmas gifts?

Here’s the incomplete list, in no particular order, of movies that are being released in December that I’m interested in:

  • Out Of The Furnace
  • Inside Llewyn Davis
  • American Hustle
  • Saving Mr. Banks
  • Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues
  • Her
  • The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Lone Survivor
  • Grudge Match

Just kidding on that last one. I don’t need to see a fake boxing match between two guys whose combined age is 137.

Of course I won’t be able to see all these new movies while they’re in the theater, but the ones I do see I’ll be certain to review so none of you readers accidentally see something terrible during this time of joy. You can bet your bottom dollar (who says that still?) that Anchorman and American Hustle reviews will be coming soon.

And that brings me to today’s review.

It’s tough to fairly rank Saving Mr. Banks because the memory of seeing that movie last weekend comes with the memory of my girlfriend and I having to walk three miles from the theater to our apartment at 12:30a.m. after the movie ended (that’s what happens when the theater is in an area with not a lot of foot traffic after midnight, your phone dies, and the buses are all shut down for the night).

Let me back up for a second because maybe some of you haven’t heard of this movie. It’s the story of the lengthy battle between Walt Disney and the author of Mary Poppins to get that diabetes-promoting nanny (spoonful of sugar? really?) onto the big screen. Wikipedia calls it a “historical comedy-drama” and doesn’t ever mention the movie being based on true events. I’m thinking the movie dramatizes the actual struggle between these main characters enough that they couldn’t market it as “the true story behind how Mary Poppins became a classic movie.”

The most basic way to describe the plot of the movie is this: An angry Australian woman who wrote the book Mary Poppins is playing hardball with Walt Disney as he bends over backwards to buy the rights from her. We see flashbacks to her childhood that show how she had to deal with an alcoholic father and a mother who tried to commit suicide. But we still dislike the adult version of this person because it makes no sense that her tough childhood would cause her to be such an asshole about this transaction. But then the screenwriter and musical composers of the film sing “Let’s Go Fly A Kite” in front of this woman and she suddenly gets up and dances and all ends well….or, more appropriately for a Disney movie, “they all lived happily ever after.”

The movie had many entertaining moments, most of them coming from the hilarious trio that comprised the aforementioned screenwriter and the composer brothers. But my biggest issue leaving the theater was that I would rather have watched the actual movie Mary Poppins than the only-somewhat-interesting backstory of how Walt Disney finally got his hands on that property.

You should see this movie if: You are a huge Disney fan (the person, Walt, or the company); Mary Poppins is one of your favorite movies of all-time; You are so obsessed with Mary Poppins that you’ll sit through a two-hour movie just to hear a couple of the songs from the original movie; you think any movie with Tom Hanks is worth seeing (exactly what drew me to this movie); you like unlikeable main characters.

You should not see this movie if: Slow-moving plots are not your thing; You need lots of action, drama or comedy in your movies; You hated Mary Poppins; You hate Disney (the person or the company); You hate Tom Hanks; You’re scared of kites and/or pears.

On the Ross Watchability Scale (RWS), I give Saving Mr. Banks a 5.5 out of 10. The novelty of it being a sorta behind-the-scenes of the making of Mary Poppins was the only thing that made it interesting…and that carried the movie all the way to slightly above average.

It’s not entirely worthless, but in this holiday season of other awesome movies and other non-movie-watching priorities, I wouldn’t suggest rushing out to the theater to see it. And if you do see it and don’t have “Let’s Go Fly A Kite” in your head for the next 72 hours, then I’m extremely jealous of you.

Week 15 NFL Recap: No Untangling of the Playoff Clusterf*ck Just Yet

Posted on by Ross Gariepy

TonyChokeJob

Even in a week where 14 of the 16 NFL games looked like possible clunkers when you checked out the schedule in advance, we still got more than our share of entertainment.

The overarching theme to week 15 is something like “Nobody makes their move” or “Absolutely no part of the playoff cluster fuck gets settled.”

Consider:

  • Denver controlled its own destiny for the #1 seed in the AFC going into its Thursday night home game against the 6-7 Chargers. The Broncos had won 14 of its 15 home games by more than 16 points per game on average in the Peyton Manning era. They proceeded to get handled by San Diego in their final home game of 2013.
  • The Patriots held the torch of “AFC team that can control its own destiny for #1 in the conference” for all of 40 hours. New England’s very winnable loss in Miami meant that at least for the moment they were no longer in control of their own destiny for the #2 seed. And they technically don’t even have the division locked up. They could land in any of the six AFC playoff slots. But if Cincinnati were to lose on Sunday night…
  • And that’s exactly what Cincy did. Handed the rare Patriots and Broncos combo loss, the Bengals couldn’t even muster up the competitiveness to give a good effort against the a hated rival…all while sitting on the chance to leapfrog New England in the AFC standings. The Bengals are probably limited to the either the 2, 3 or 4 seed in the AFC now.
  • I famously picked against Kansas City and Indianapolis under the premise that neither team had much of anything to play for at this point. They proceeded to win their games by 25 and 22 points, respectively. But more importantly, Kansas City and Denver now have identical 11-3 records. Should Denver slip up in the next two weeks, the Chiefs would take AFC West pole position and be looking at a top seed.
  • Next week the Patriots are at 7-6 Baltimore and the Chiefs host 9-5 Indianapolis. The Broncos get to play a road game at 2-12 Houston while the Bengals host 4-9-1 Minnesota. Advantage to Denver and Cincy.
  • The only AFC contender that did anything significant this week was Miami beating the Patriots. A ton of pressure on Baltimore to get the road win in Detroit on Monday night to keep pace with the Dolphins for the #6 seed.
  • Over in the NFC another team that I didn’t think would get up for their game was Seattle. All they did was shut out the Giants 23-0 at the Meadowlands. In my defense, I couldn’t possibly have factored five Eli interceptions into my prediction. I should have factored in about three interceptions because that’s what we’ve come to expect from the 2013 version of Eli. But five?? Anyway, Seattle has a stranglehold on the #1 seed in the NFC with two home games remaining and a two game lead over the next closest team.
  • Looking at that two-horse race in the South, the Saints’ ugly kinda-sorta no-show in St. Louis put Carolina in the driver’s seat for the #2 seed in the conference. If the Panthers can handle New Orleans in Carolina next week, they’ll likely get that first round bye while the Saints play at the NFC North or East winner.
  • The top of the NFC standings is calm and orderly compared to the middle and bottom of that bracket.
  • In the NFC East, there are two teams vying for the division title, and they both suffered depressing losses on Sunday. Philly got its ass kicked by Minnesota (the Vikings came into the game as the 22nd ranked Team Offense according to Football Outsiders. They dropped 48 on the Eagles). Dallas suffered such an incredible meltdown that Jerry Jones would be totally justified firing the entire team and coaching staff even though they’re still right in the playoff hunt. The Cowboys were up 23 at halftime and still had a 12-point lead with less than eight minutes to go in the 4th. Of course two Tony Romo 4th quarter interceptions contributed to the meltdown in a big way.
  • And in the NFC North, there are three teams vying for the division title, and two of them already won this week with the Lions still to play on Monday night. The Bears are 8-6 and have Jay Cutler back. The Packers are 7-6-1 and I’d be shocked if Aaron Rodgers didn’t return for their week 16 game against Pittsburgh. And if the 7-6 Lions win on Monday, they’ll be in the driver’s seat with final games against the Giants and the Vikings (translation: two definite wins if you truly are a playoff team).
  • If the Lions lose on Monday, we could be seeing Green Bay at Chicago in week 17 for the title (with the loser missing out on the playoffs entirely). That would be an incredible game.
  • Nothing to report in the NFC wildcard race because Carolina, San Francisco and Arizona all won. That keeps the Panthers and 49ers in the lead for the two playoff spots, but the Cardinals lurk just one game back.
  • If Carolina loses to New Orleans next week, the Panthers’ final game of the season at Atlanta becomes extremely intriguing. Carolina losing these final two games would mean both the 49ers and Cardinals getting into the playoffs as long as they each win one of their final two games (9ers host Atlanta in week 16, and Arizona gets the 9ers at home in week 17, when San Francisco might not be playing for anything).
  • Crazy that a team like Carolina could finish as the #2 seed, a wildcard team or out of the playoffs entirely. No clarity at all for having played 14 games already.
  • It feels weird that only four teams have locked up playoff spots at this point in the season. Even weirder…only one team has clinched its division (Indy).

But that goes along well with the really friggen strange season we’ve seen. You’re not getting any more of a recap today because, well…..I just went 2-12-1 against the fucking spread. That’s why. My girlfriend (the one who isn’t sure if domes are heated or not and last watched a full football game when Ted Johnson was still employed by the Patriots) just ripped off an 8-6-1 week against the spread, and I fall to the rockiest of rock bottoms with 2-12-1??? I hate this so much. And I’ll probably not even bother including my picks for the week 16 preview. Julie seems to have the bets worth backing.

Julie’s picks coming up on Thursday. Enjoy Baltimore’s Last Stand vs Detroit’s Last Stand later tonight.

Week 15 NFL Picks: Running Back the Girlfriend’s Picks

Posted on by Ross Gariepy

old-man-crystal-ball

Last week we were treated to one of the best weekends of football in recent memory. Of course everyone has seen or heard about the frantic ending to many of the early games on Sunday, but by my count, there were also seven games in week 14 where both teams were fighting for their playoff lives or their playoff seeding. That’s an aggressive amount of relevant games.

Sadly that won’t be the case in week 15 as we have only three matchups that fall into that category: New England @ Miami, Green Bay @ Dallas and Baltimore @ Detroit. And even those games don’t feel too compelling. The silver lining is that sometimes the most boring-sounding Sundays turn into the craziest. Maybe it’ll be a week of upsets galore. Maybe we’ll see Calvin Johnson, Josh Gordon or Alshon Jeffrey do something we’ve never seen before. Maybe 12 of the 32 quarterbacks will leave their games with injuries. Or maybe it’ll be a true calm before the storm. One last week of order before chaos ensues during the season’s final two weeks and into the playoffs.

Since I finally found a winning formula last week, I’m sticking with it this week. My girlfriend Julie didn’t quite outpick me in week 14 as I predicted. She went 9-7 against the spread while I went 10-6. When I asked her on Tuesday if she wanted to make picks again this week, she was unsure, so I taunted her Golden Tate style by saying how poorly she did last week and how much I own her in picks. She quickly agreed to make the week 15 picks.

(Side Note: Her comments are in the quotations while I add my own comments to her picks in parentheses.)

Let’s get to it:

San Diego @ Denver (-10.5)

Julie’s Pick: “This is my upset of the week. San Diego. (She comes out guns blazing!!) “No one would ever pick them because of the cold weather factor and the -10 spread.”

Ross’s Pick: Before you decide to take San Diego and the points, I should inform you that the smallest margin of victory for the Broncos at home this year is 10 points. Their other six home games have been wins by: 22, 16, 32, 16, 24 and 23 points. For this reason alone, I’m taking Denver to cover with a 41-27 win. (CONFIDENCE PICK)

Washington @ Atlanta (-7)

Julie’s Pick: “Oooh oooh oooh, and I know that the guy with the three initials…RG3!!…he’s out for the season. So maybe Atlanta…but wait, Washington’s backup is gonna be the next Tom Brady. I’m going with Washington.”

Ross’s Pick: For my money, the best outcome of this new quarterback arrangement in Washington would be for Kirk Cousins to suffer a season-ending injury this week. That would force Mike Shanahan to either reinstate RGIII as his starter or make an even bigger mockery of the most celebrated position in professional sports by starting Rex Grossman. We’re probably not lucky enough to see this happen. Instead the Redskins will continue their efforts to redefine the phrases “mailing it in” and “quitting on the team.” Atlanta covers with a 34-13 win.

San Francisco (-6) @ Tampa Bay

Julie’s Pick: “San Francisco won last week, right? And Tampa Bay won last week too, right? Then of course it’s Tampa Bay because they’re at home…and they’re on a high streak.”

Ross’s Pick: The backdoor cover feels like a lock in this game. This is probably a tough game for San Francisco to get up for. The Bucs aren’t half bad anymore. It feels like Tampa Bay covers but San Francisco wins 30-27.

Seattle (-7) @ NY Giants

Julie’s Pick: “Seattle because they won’t have liked that loss from last week. Boom. Seattle back on track.”

Ross’s Pick: The Seahawks don’t need this game at all. They finish with two home games and as long as they win those, they get the #1 seed. I think it’s impossible for them to play inspired football this week. The Giants get the win, 33-29.

Chicago (-1) @ Cleveland

Julie’s Pick: (She has an emotional breakdown because these are the two teams she always picks, apparently…but, you know, she’s been doing this for all of one weeks.) “Cleveland’s probably mad about that loss to the Patriots last week.” (45 second pause) “I’m gonna go with the Bears. It’s almost like Cleveland should have won last week, so you’d almost expect that they’re due for a win. But they’re gonna be too depressed. Chicago wins.” (I’m calling it now. “Team X is mad about last week’s outcome” is the new “Team X has the cold weather advantage” in Julie’s analysis.)

Ross’s Pick: The Bears finally fulfilled my lofty aspirations for them last week. I just can’t  pick against them after finally seeing them fire on all cylinders. If Cleveland takes away Alshon Jeffrey and the deep pass, the Bears will just lean heavily on Matt Forte, who’s having a sneaky awesome season. Chicago wins 31-24. (CONFIDENCE PICK)

Houston @ Indianapolis (-6)

Julie’s Pick: “Easy, Indy.” (I press her for a reason.) “Because that’s an obvious cold weather advantage.” (I tell her it’s in a dome.) “But is the dome heated?…” (Checkmate)

Ross’s Pick: I’m riding the “Indy has nothing to play for” theory. That’s the only reason I’m picking Houston to cover…and win! 33-30.

Buffalo (-2) @ Jacksonville

Julie’s Pick: “Jacksonville because -2 isn’t that much and Jacksonville has the home field advantage.”

Ross’s Pick: “This is as bad as Houston being favored by three at Jacksonville last week. The Jaguars aren’t terrible and these opponents kind of are. Jacksonville should be favored at home against any team that’s not at least .500 right now. I say the Jaguars get their fourth win in a row, 27-24. And don’t look now, but Jacksonville could finish the season 7-9 while putting up a 7-1 record in the second half of the year. Stunning, right? (CONFIDENCE PICK)

New England (-1.5) @ Miami

Julie’s Pick: (She tries to abstain for the second straight week.) (Then she makes our dog decide, and based on a slight movement of the dog’s foot at the exact right moment, Miami is the pick.)

Ross’s Pick: I’d also like to abstain. I just have no idea how the Patriots will come out in the post-Gronk world. If I wasn’t a jinx, I’d write about how something special seems to be going on with the Patriots this year. And that’s why I’d pick them. That’s my way of saying I’m taking New England to cover and win, 30-23.

Philadelphia (-5) @ Minnesota

Julie’s Pick: “Minnesota lost last week when they should have won, huh? Yeah, I’m picking them. They deserve one this week.”

Ross’s Pick: You can’t pick a Peterson-less Minnesota in this game. It’s just not smart. Toby Gerhart might be out too. Imagine getting to play against Matt Cassel while knowing he has absolutely no running threat to bail him out. I’ll take Philadelphia to win 37-23. (CONFIDENCE PICK)

NY Jets @ Carolina (-11)

Julie’s Pick: “Not the Jets. Nobody likes the Jets.” (Damn, it’s comments like those that make me think we can take this relationship from casual fling to something a little more serious.) “I’m picking Carolina.”

Ross’s Pick: This line could be 57 and I’d be taking Carolina. You just can’t trust Geno Smith on the road against a playoff-bound team that happens to have an incredible defense. Carolina wins big 38-15.

Kansas City (-5) @ Oakland

Julie’s Pick: “Oakland. Those fans are brutal and will get in your head. And they got killed last week. It can’t happen twice in a row.”

Ross’s Pick: As I mentioned in Tuesday’s recap column, beware of Kansas City for the rest of the regular season. They’ve got nothing to play for. The focus should be on keeping everyone healthy and working on any weaknesses that have been exposed this year. I’m assuming Jamaal Charles starts to get a lighter workload during this final stretch. The Raiders cover and win, 23-20.

Arizona (-3) @ Tennessee

Julie’s Pick: “Tennessee. They were so close to an upset last week that they’ll easily cover three this time.” (They lost by 23 points last week.)

Ross’s Pick: I still like the idea of Arizona nipping at the heels of the 49ers for a playoff spot, especially when there’s a potential huge game looming between them in week 17. I don’t love the Cardinals offense on the road against Tennessee, but I’m hoping their defense will balance things out. We’re in for a low-scoring game as Arizona gets the win 17-10.

New Orleans (-7) @ St. Louis

Julie’s Pick: “New Orleans. I just like picking them.” (Last week it was “New Orleans ‘cuz of Katrina.)

Ross’s Pick: One of those rare road games where I don’t worry about the Saints that much. It’s in a dome. The Rams have lost at home to several playoff teams this year. I worry about the backdoor cover a little, but I think the Saints know they need to keep winning to stay ahead of Carolina. Let’s go with a Saints win, 34-24.

Green Bay @ Dallas (-7)

Julie’s Pick: “Is Aaron Rodgers back?” (I inform her that he most likely isn’t…) “I’m gonna take Dallas then. They can take advantage of a team that lacks any stability right now.”

Ross’s Pick: I wholeheartedly agree with Julie on this one. The Packers are 1-4-1 since Rodgers went down. They have no chance with Matt Flynn. Dallas covers, 31-17. But if Rodgers should end up playing, I’m calling this pick null and void.

Cincinnati (-3) @ Pittsburgh

Julie’s Pick: “I wanna say Cincinnati because I’ve never liked Pittsburgh, but I’m gonna say Pittsburgh.”

Ross’s Pick: “I know the Bengals aren’t locked into their playoff position yet, but I feel like ultra-conservative Marvin Lewis is going to treat the next three games as if it’s more important to stay healthy than to fight for the #2 seed. And for the most part, these AFC North games belong to the home team. So I’m going with Pittsburgh in a 27-20 win. (CONFIDENCE PICK)

Baltimore @ Detroit (-6)

Julie’s Pick: “Can you tell me how many underdogs and how many overdogs I’ve picked so far?” (Yep, overdogs. I can’t make this stuff up. I tell her it’s an even split.) “Then Detroit obviously because it’s unrealistic to think that many underdogs would win in a week.

Ross’s Pick: It’s impossible to trust Detroit at this point. They should have run away with the division as soon as Rodgers got injured. Instead they’re just 2-3 since that NFC North-altering moment. And Baltimore just won’t go away. I lack faith in both these teams so I’m going with the one that has a championship pedigree. Baltimore covers and wins, 30-28.

For those of you keeping score at home, in week 15 Julie’s taking:

  • 7 Favorites & 9 Underdogs
  • Of those 9 Underdogs, 7 are Home Dogs & 2 are Road Dogs
And I’m taking:
  • 9 Favorites & 7 Underdogs
  • Of those 7 Underdogs, 5 are Home Dogs & 2 are Road Dogs
And finally, we have the same pick in 8 of 16 games.

Enjoy week 15!

Week 14 NFL Recap: The Floundering Four & Rooting For A Referee Mistake in the Super Bowl

Posted on by Ross Gariepy

gronk

We’ve got the next eight weeks to discuss the playoff teams. Today we lead off with possibly the craziest single subplot of the NFL season, and the one people are ignoring the most.

Four playoff teams from 2012, including two who won 12 or more games, currently boast the four worst records in the NFL. These epic free-fallers are Houston (2-11), Washington & Atlanta (both 3-10) and Minnesota (3-9-1).

Typically a handful of the previous year’s playoffs teams will miss the current year’s playoffs. But never have those teams all fallen to the very bottom of the league.

It’s simply stunning.

So what happened? Was their playoff appearance the anomaly or is their absence from this year’s playoffs the outlier? And how about the futures of each team’s head coach and starting quarterback? Let’s dive in.

Atlanta is probably in the best shape of these four teams. The Falcons have won 10 or more games in four of the past five seasons, and their implosions in the playoffs have become a yearly tradition. They were probably due to struggle a little and win only nine or 10 games in 2013, but the Julio Jones injury along with a few others absolutely short-circuited Atlanta’s season. But Matt Ryan will be fine at quarterback, and they still have good skill position players. I’m on record as saying Mike Smith will never get them to the Super Bowl, but you could do a lot worse than him. Even with the Falcons losing Tony Gonzalez after this season, I think they still contend for a wildcard spot next year and beyond. I’m going to say 2013 is the anomaly for Atlanta.

Washington would probably be next, but their value is almost 100% based on one player: Robert Griffin. He’s not even having a good year, but an average RGIII is a huge advantage over the teams that are starting the Matt Cassels and Case Keenums of the world. It seems like a known fact that Mike Shanahan won’t be back next year. As for the long term outlook, Redskins fans seem to be holding on tight to the notion that the $30 million they get next year toward the cap that they didn’t have this year due to violations will solve all the problems. But last time Dan Snyder had cap room like that, he bet big on Albert Haynesworth. So who knows. If RGIII comes back healthier in 2014 and they fix whatever management and player leadership problems seem to be bubbling to the surface, I think 2013 will go down as the anomaly during the Griffin Era. If he can’t stay healthy, then the 2012 playoff run will stick out as the outlier.

Houston steps up next with a roster full of names who should be better than an 11-game losing streak. One big problem is the injuries. No one could predict season-enders for Arian Foster and Brian Cushing. Matt Schaub’s midseason injury…no one can decide whether that actually hurt the Texans or helped them. There’s also a chance they were just extremely unlucky this year as eight of their 11 losses have come by a touchdown or less. Gary Kubiak’s already gone. It’ll be interesting to see if they use their high draft pick on a quarterback, or if they talk themselves into having Schaub and Keenum compete for the starting job in 2014. I don’t think they’re necessarily looking at a full rebuilding that will take three to five years because they have talent at several positions, but any time a team changes out its head coach and starting QB, you have to expect some struggles for a little while. I think worst case scenario for Houston is that they go back to being an annual 7-9 or 8-8 team, which means 2013 is somewhat of an anomaly.

And finally, those poor bastards up north, Minnesota. Truth be told, they were one of the top two candidates from last year’s playoff teams to miss this year’s postseason (Indy was the other one, and if they played in any division other than the AFC South, they’d probably be fighting for their playoff lives instead of being locked into the #4 seed). It’s not a complete anomaly that they made the playoffs last year, at least not in the same way a Buffalo Bills playoff appearance would be an anomaly. The Vikings have made the playoffs in four of the past nine years, but it’s not like they’ve been a true Super Bowl contender during that time (except for 2009 when Brett Favre brought them to the brink of the Super Bowl before devastatingly ripping them away from the brink with a classic Favre interception in the NFC Championship game). Besides that one Favre season, Minnesota’s had nothing in the way of quarterbacks over the last decade, and that feels like an understatement for 2013 when Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel and Josh Freeman have played hot potato with the starting QB position. If the Vikings do anything other than focus on finding a franchise QB during the offseason, every decision-maker in that organization should be exiled from our society. I don’t really know about Leslie Frazier as head coach, but if ownership is unsure about him at all, they might as well make a change after this season when the whole organization goes into rebuilding mode once again. But, hey, at least they’ll always have that tie in Green Bay. I think the Vikings are a long way off from competing. Let’s call the 2012 playoffs an anomaly, linked specifically to Adrian Peterson’s outlier of a career season that year.

Since it’s already Tuesday afternoon, let’s quickly empty out the week 14 notebook:

  • Starting with the Monday night game…You know that Chicago team that showed up last night? The one with two giant wide receivers who are practically uncoverable and the versatile running back who can play receiver almost as well as he plays runner? That’s the Chicago team that I’ve been betting on all year. Except only rarely have they shown up as this particular team, which helps me understand why I’ve lost so much this year. To me they seem like a more-talented version of the Patriots (except at QB). I’ll take Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey over any two WRs from the Patriots. And obviously Matt Forte is 100 times better than Stevan Ridley. Both defenses are awful against the run and suspect against the pass. What am I missing? Especially with no Gronk, this Chicago team does laps around New England from a talent standpoint. And yet, one team is fighting just to stay in the playoff mix and the other is still charging toward a 1st-round bye. I guess the difference is Brady/Belichick but also the weak AFC East.
  • From an objective standpoint Sunday morning’s games were collectively the craziest set of games in NFL history. But when your X factor, indispensible offensive weapon goes down for the year with a knee injury amidst all that amazing chaos, it’s impossible to feel good about an entertaining Sunday. That was seriously the most heart-breaking hour of excitement for Patriots fans. It would have been nice to have a few minutes to enjoy yet another come-from-behind win before remembering “Oh yeah, these guys barely cracked 20 points per game without Gronk, they’re fucked.”
  • But I will say, it’s the first Sunday of the season where I made the conscious decision to let my bladder burst, if it came to that, rather than miss a single play on the Red Zone Channel by using the bathroom.
  • We can feel sorry for ourselves that two entertaining players suffered season-ending injuries on the same day…Gronk and Tyrann Mathieu, or we can petition Spike TV to create a reality show around these guys rehabbing their ligament tears while living in the same apartment in a party town. I would kill to see Mathieu trying to lay low while recovering, staying on the straight & narrow, avoiding the temptations that got him into trouble in college, while Gronk parties night after night, bringing home a truck full of women and inadvertently enabling Mathieu to slip back into his old habits. I would watch that TV show.
  • In the “punishment does not fit the crime” category, I dare someone to convince me that tapping a quarterback on the helmet or knee is an equivalent offense to a kicker grabbing an opponent who’s running 20 miles per hour by the face mask and violently twisting it 180 degrees. Not only do both actions come with a 15 yard penalty, but the guy who taps the QB’s helmet is likely getting a bigger fine (if the kicker even gets fined at all). I thought of this when Saints punter Thomas Morstead almost ripped Tedd Ginn’s head off in this very manner to save a touchdown on Sunday night.
  • Speaking of the Saints, I might have underrated their chances at beating the Seahawks in a rematch at Seattle in my column last week. They’d obviously be an underdog, but even if the Sean Payton-Dres Brees offensive genius is a little overblown, they’re still the team most likely to be able to add a couple offensive wrinkles and put up 30 in Seattle. The Seahawks are probably going to average at least 30 points per game at home in the playoffs so I’d think the Saints would be a more likely candidate to match that score than someone like Carolina or San Francisco.
  • Since we’re talking playoffs…have you ever seen a team back into the playoffs quite like the Indianapolis Colts? They’re now 2-3 in their last five games (4-4 in their last eight), and look terrible every week. There’s probably not a less deserving playoff team.
  • So the Colts are pretty much locked into the #4 seed, and the Chiefs are almost guaranteed the #5 seed. That means they’ll be facing each other in the wildcard round of the playoffs, but more importantly, neither team has anything left to play for in the regular season. Keep that in mind when picking games that involve them. You don’t want to be the asshole who bets on the Chiefs and finds out too late that Chase Daniel is getting the start over Alex Smith.
  • The NFC North has become everything we ever wanted out of the NFC East: No one daring to keep their record more than one game above .500, the teams treating the division title like it’s an STD…really inspiring stuff coming out of that division.
  • I’ve been saying it all year, but it feels relevant to reiterate my stance on the current state of officiating: The NFL has been NBA’ified. Not only do the refs actually look incompetent more than they ever used to (prime examples this week were Jeff Triplette ruling BenJarvus Green-Ellis’s scamper into the end zone a touchdown even though his knee hit the ground well short of the plane, and Jerome Boger’s crew getting nearly every call wrong in the Patriots game, including the touch foul against Cleveland in the end zone on the Patriots’ game-winning drive), but the scrutiny around every single call is out of control. Fans expect a flag on every play. Players and coaches scream for a flag every time a play works against them. Multiple Vikings players were quoted after their loss to Baltimore as thinking the refs really boned them good, except no one could point to a specific call that went against them. They just thought the entire game was poorly officiated.
  • And I think we’re at a breaking point. With how many games have been determined by a disputed call or non-call at a crucial moment this year, you’ve got to think at least one of 11 playoff games is going to fall into this mess. I want to see some officiating reform because I think it stinks that the non-athletes on the field are determining games. Therefore I’m rooting for the Super Bowl to be determined on an atrocious penalty or non-call.
  • As far as the week 14 picks against the spread go, well it was a throwback to 2012 for me. 10-6 against the spread including 4-1 in my confidence picks. And Julie was no slouch either. She went 9-7 despite using the weather as literally the only determining factor in each pick. Should I run it back for week 15 with both mine and Julie’s picks? I know she’s a fan favorite, but I’ll have to see if she has time in her busy schedule.
  • Week 15 picks coming on Thursday.

Week 14 NFL Picks: My Girlfriend Takes Over As I Pull A Stevan Ridley

Posted on by Ross Gariepy

old-man-crystal-ball

When my weekly picks dipped to nearly 20 games below .500 back in mid-October, I didn’t panic or throw in the towel. I didn’t walk away from my commitment to posting my picks every Thursday. I didn’t even make excuses.

Because I just knew my year was mirroring the Jacksonville Jaguars or the Tampa Bay Bucs…not nearly as pathetic as my record seemed, destined to turn it around and at least end up with a season that could be classified slightly above “hot garbage.”

But after a November with only one winning week, including a putrid 6-9-1 record in week 13, I’m starting to think my season will end up mirroring the Atlanta Falcons, or worse, the Houston Texans. I started off OK, nosedived almost immediately, tanked even worse at the halfway point, and have now apparently hit rock bottom. My only concern is that this might not be rock bottom. What if I have an 0-16 week on the horizon? Holy shit. That would potentially be the worst moment in my lifetime of following sports. If that happens, I’d maybe think about offing myself and leaving my life savings to my loyal readers as an attempt at reparations. Let’s not spend another second considering that possibility.

For week 14 I’ll be watching the majority of the games in my brother’s man cave in San Francisco. Does the change of scenery perhaps help snap me out of this funk? Doubtful, considering last time I visited San Francisco was week 9 and I put up a gaudy record of 4-9 against the spread.

Is there a hex-breaking dance I can invoke to end this awful year of picks?

Should I try a new strategy? The last two weeks was my trial run of “don’t think, just pick,” and while my cumulative record over that time was a non-disastrous 14-15-1, it’s still not good enough.

Should I go the opposite way and use no instincts? Instead relying purely on Football Outsider’s current DVOA rankings as if there’s no human element whatsoever in picking NFL winners.

In dire times like these, I always fall back on one mantra: What Would Belichick Do?

You may think I’m about to say, “He wouldn’t give up. He’d play til the final whistle. So that’s what I’m going to do.” But actually I’m going another way with this. After Belichick gave Stevan Ridley chance after chance to become a reliable (read: NON-FUMBLING) featured back in the Patriots offense, he was finally left with no choice but to distance Ridley from any situation that could allow him to impact the game. And it came to a climax last week when Ridley was mercifully deactivated against the Texans.

So you know what I’m doing for my week 14 picks? I’m benching myself. And just as Ridley spent that entire game at Houston on the sidelines carrying around a football while in street, I’ll be carrying around a printed out copy of the week 14 lines and will be studying them as I watch each game (in street clothes). Maybe I’ll learn the proper way to evaluate football teams.

But have no fear because I’m replacing myself in the starting lineup with someone who would have most definitely outpicked me had I given her a chance to do so over the course of the year. My girlfriend Julie will be making a pick for each game and providing the logic behind each pick.

(But you don’t think I can skip a week of picks entirely, right? After all, I still need to make picks against the spread for my Pick ‘Em Leagues. So my picks will be included below Julie’s, but I’ll warn you again…if choosing which picks to rely on, go with my girlfriend’s 100 times out of 100.)

Let’s get to the debut of “Julie Outpicks Her Degenerate Boyfriend Even Though She Hasn’t Watched More than 11 Minutes Of Football Since 2007.”

(Note: My comments/explanations on Julie’s picks are in parentheses. And many of her comments read as if she’s having a conversation with me more so than talking to the readers.)

(Note #2: When Julie says things like “I always pick [TEAM X],” she means she picks them in the giant $1 parlay that I let her do on my betting website every week. And since she’s never won any of those bets, you’d think maybe she’d change it up from the teams she always picks. But no.)

Houston (-3) @ Jacksonville

Julie’s Pick: “I’ll go Jacksonville based on the home team advantage. Maybe Uncle Mo will be in the house.” (That’s short for momentum, by the way…I should also note that she repeatedly referred to Houston as “Texas.”)

Ross’s Pick: Never seen a line make less sense than this one. Jacksonville should be favored by 3.5. Jags cover and win outright 36-27.

Kansas City (-3) @ Washington

Julie’ Pick: “Oh, Washington because it’s Werner’s team.” (Our college friend who’s a big Washington fan who probably suspects Julie’s just as big of a jinx as I am. At least now he can blame their 10th loss of the season on her instead of me.)

Ross’s Pick: Best news for Washington players in a long time: After this week, they only have one more home game for the rest of the season. That means only one more opportunity to disappoint their fans. Kansas City covers with a 27-17 win.

Minnesota @ Baltimore (-7)

Julie’s Pick: (She lets out a huge sigh at the mention of this game.) “Baltimore… Maryland… Hmm…I’m gonna go Minnesota because they both have the cold weather advantage and always an underdog wins, at least one, maybe more.” (I honestly have no clue what this means.)

Ross’s Pick: I guess technically Baltimore’s “on a roll” right now. And Matt Cassel’s starting for the Vikings. You know what? Wouldn’t it be just like the annoying Ravens to round into form in December and make people think they have another out-of-nowhere Super Bowl run in them? Disgusting, but I’m taking Baltimore to cover with a 28-17 win.

Cleveland @ New England (-11.5)

Julie’s Pick: “I abstain from the game with the home team always…and by home team, I mean the team that Ross roots for because he’ll be miserable or mad at me if I pick them and they lose. And if it was any other matchup you know I’d pick Cleveland because of Romeo Crennel.” (I did inform her more than a week ago that Romeo Crennel hasn’t been associated with the Browns organization in several years. Never stops her from citing his past employment there as a reason to love them.) “If forced, I’d pick the Patriots.”

Ross’s Pick: Jacksonville just handled the Browns in Cleveland, right? And we may see Alex Tanney, he of the zero NFL regular season career snaps. Fuck it, Patriots roll to a 42-17 win. (CONFIDENCE PICK)

Oakland @ NY Jets (-3)

Julie’s Pick: (She mimed puking motions at the mention of both teams.) “I gotta go with the Jets for the cold weather factor…and I hate Oakland.” (She lived in the Bay Area for six years. I shouldn’t have to tell her that it gets pretty cold there too, right?)

Ross’s Pick: All that “will Geno get benched” talk isn’t fooling me. As bad as the Jets are, the Raiders have quietly lost four of their last five, and they’re 1-5 on the road this year. I also made a preseason bet that the Raiders would finish with less than 5.5 wins so I need this. Jets win 20-10. (CONFIDENCE PICK)

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati (-6)

Julie’s Pick: “I always pick Cincinnati, but wait, how many games in a row have they won?” (I tell her I doubt that number is significant. Then I look it up and tell her two. Two wins in a row.) “Oh, then I definitely pick the other team…Who was the other team again? Colts? Yeah, I pick them.”

Ross’s Pick: Reggie Wayne appears to be almost as important of a player to his team as Aaron Rodgers is to the Packers. Didn’t think that was the case. Bengals cover and win 24-16.

Detroit @ Philadelphia (-3)

Julie’s Pick: “Toss up. I don’t really have a preference for either team. I guess the Eagles because of home field advantage.” (I informed her of the Eagles’ amazing failure rate at home over the past two years and she says…) “Definitely then. They’re due.”

Ross’s Pick: Rare game where I don’t think the three-point favorite covers, but still wins. I have such a soft spot for Detroit this year and I’m not sure why. The Lions cover but Philly pulls it out by the slimmest of margins, 34-33.

Miami @ Pittsburgh (-3)

Julie’s Pick: “Oooh, why are these all so close? Miami won last week, right?” (looooong pause) “I hate to say this again, but I’m going Pittsburgh, cold weather factor.” (I burst into laughter telling her no one has ever put as much stock into the “cold weather factor” as she has.)

Ross’s Pick: But in this case I do agree with her. Miami on the road in the Northeast in December feels like bad news. The Mike Wallace revenge game goes poorly for Mike Wallace. Pittsburgh wins 15-9.

Buffalo @ Tampa Bay (-3)

Julie’s Pick: “I like Tampa Bay. I always pick them.” (I thought she was going to introduce the not-often-cited “warm weather factor” into this pick.)

Ross’s Pick: Flip a coin. Two teams that are evenly matched. I’ll take the points. Bills win 24-23.

Atlanta @ Green Bay (-6.5)

Julie’s Pick: “Well I had that dream about Atlanta, remember?” (I tell her there’s a good chance Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play in this game…) “That changes everything…but I’ll go Green Bay because of my Wisconsin clan.” (Her group of friends in San Francisco, several of whom are actually from Minnesota.)

Ross’s Pick: If Rodgers doesn’t play, this line is too high (Matt Flynn should be spotted somewhere between 14-35 points against any NFL team). And if a rusty, nothing-to-play-for Rodgers does play, this line might still be too high. I’ll take Atlanta to cover and win outright 31-23.

Tennessee @ Denver (-13)

Julie’s Pick: “Whoaaaaa, 13, really? And Tennessee is what, the Titans? Hmm…I gotta go Tennessee. Token upset.” (I ask her if she means the Titans are going to win outright…) “Yes, that’s what upset means.”

Ross’s Pick: Since I don’t feel confident about either side of this spread, I’m defaulting to Julie’s pick. The Titans won’t win, but they’ll cover. Denver takes the 33-24 victory.

St. Louis @ Arizona (-6)

Julie’s Pick: “Yes, St. Louis. I like them.” (She blurted that out before I even told her who the Rams are facing in this game…so do what you want with that info.)

Ross’s Pick: This is the first time in like 10 weeks that I don’t have a great feel for how the Arizona game will go down. After realizing the Cardinals are 5-1 at home this year with their lone loss coming against Seattle, I’m going with Arizona to cover with a 26-13 win. (CONFIDENCE PICK)

NY Giants @ San Diego (-3)

Julie’s Pick: “San Diego because I love that city and they must be happy. They’re in better spirits than people from cold weather cities.”

Ross’s Pick: A matchup 10 years in the making…Eli…Philip…The 2004 Draft…Eli’s refusal to play in San Diego…If San Diegans cared about sports they’d show up and boo Eli. You get it. Sign me up for a San Diego win, 30-23. (CONFIDENCE PICK)

Seattle @ San Francisco (-3)

Julie’s Pick: “Seattle’s been a wild card this year, huh? You just never know if they’re going to win or not. All their games are up in the air…but my gut says Seattle. Let’s go with that one.” (5 second pause) “Does Kaepernick still play?” (She reconsiders.) “No, I never really liked him for some reason. I don’t know why. Did he ever do anything bad?” (Jesus, so many comments here. Do I break the news to her that no team has been more of a lock this year than Seattle? Do I make up a fictitious “Kaepernick is a child molester” story? So many ways I could go.)

Ross’s Pick: Seattle, I hate you. But I might not pick against you until you face the Patriots in the Super Bowl. The Seahawks win 27-24.

Carolina @ New Orleans (-3.5)

Julie’s Pick: “New Orleans definitely…because of Katrina.”

Ross’s Pick: The Carolina bandwagon probably shouldn’t stop at a weigh station any time soon. But I look at this matchup as the home team having a significant edge. I’ll take the Saints to cover and win 31-24, setting the stage for the rematch in Carolina in week 16. (CONFIDENCE PICK)

Dallas @ Chicago (-1)

Julie’s Pick: “I always pick the Bears. DA BEARS.” (Yep, she threw in the famous SNL quote and then looked at me like I was supposed to applaud her for her detailed knowledge of the Bears.)

Ross’s Pick: My soft spot for the Bears is almost as soft as my soft spot for the Lions. Something about those NFC North teams. Give me a Bears win by a score of 29-21.

For those of you keeping score at home, in week 14 Julie’s taking:

  • 9 Favorites & 7 Underdogs
  • Of those 7 Underdogs, 2 are Home Dogs & 5 are Road Dogs

And I’m taking:

  • 10 Favorites & 6 Underdogs
  • Of those 6 Underdogs, 1 is a Home Dog & 5 are Road Dogs

We have the same pick for nine out of 16 games.

Good luck trying to make sense out of this cluster fuck. Enjoy week 14.