OK, technically that title is false. I know a bet has been made in the past between two guys where the stakes involved the loser drinking an Appletini. I know because I was on the losing end of the bet.

Guest blogger Neil and I are running back our “closest to the pin” challenge this year. We’ve each guessed the exact record for every NFL team, and whoever ends up closer to the actual record for more teams at the end of the year is the winner.

The loser, once again, has to drink eight beverages chosen by the winner over a 12-hour period in Vegas next March. Last year Neil didn’t go the route of force-feeding me terrible, vomit-inducing libations. Instead he went with the strategy of “how embarrassing can I make each order considering we’re in a sports bar surrounded by 500 men.”

Here’s how it turned out:

I’d say the most displeasing one was the “nice glass of Zin.”

Warning to anyone else considering drinking eight beverages like the ones above while also sipping your own beers & whiskey drinks throughout the day: This may cause you to accidentally announce to the entire sports book that you desperately want to propose to your girlfriend.

Anyway, after two straight losing years with this bet, I’m determined to not let Neil three peat.

The NFC guesses will come later this week. Let’s start off with our breakdown of the AFC:

 

Baltimore

• 2013 Record: 8-8
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 8-8
• Ross: 9-7

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: I might be underrating their defense and the fact that they won’t be defending a Super Bowl title. I’m not convinced Joe Flacco bounces back though.
• Ross: It bothers me that while knowing they need to keep up with offenses led by Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck, the Ravens did practically nothing to improve their 30th ranked offense from 2013. Steve Smith does not count as a game-changing addition.

Buffalo

• 2013 Record: 6-10
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 8-8
• Ross: 4-12

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: They should easily be the 2nd best team in the AFC East this year. That might only require seven wins though.
• Ross: Early prediction for next Spring: The Bills’ quarterback situation is debated ad naseum leading up to the draft as they become next year’s “should they move on from their first round pick of just a couple years ago and go for a QB with the first overall pick.”

Cincinnati

• 2013 Record: 11-5
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 9-7
• Ross: 8-8

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: If Vegas posted a line on “qualifies for the playoffs, loses first playoff game, Marvin Lewis fired” would that even be plus money? I say “no” (-120).
• Ross: The deciding factor on whether to pick the Bengals to win eight or nine games was the turnover on the coaching staff. If it took a player the caliber of Ben Roethlisberger time to adjust to his new offensive coordinator a couple years ago, I imagine there will be some initial disconnect between Andy Dalton and Hue Jackson.

Cleveland

• 2013 Record: 4-12
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 75/1

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 6-10
• Ross: 7-9

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: Regardless of the QB, this team could have been a decent sleeper with Josh Gordon.
• Ross: I have Brian Hoyer as being worth two more wins than Johnny Manziel this year. This is likely the dilemma for Cleveland management: Do we assume we’re not a contender this year and just use the season to get Manziel as much experience as possible, or do we go with the guy who can get us to 7-9, possibly 8-8, maybe in the weak AFC we sneak into the playoffs, but of course we risk still missing the playoffs and wasting a year of perfectly good Manziel experience?

Denver

• 2013 Record: 13-3
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 6/1

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 12-4
• Ross: 11-5

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: I’m already excited to see them lose to the NFC Super Bowl representative by four touchdowns on February 1st.
• Ross: Some brilliant football analysts have already noted how insanely difficult the Broncos’ schedule is in 2014. While they’ve added guys like DeMarcus Ware and half a season of a healthy Aqib Talib, don’t forget that they lost Eric Decker and Knowshon Moreno, Wes Welker might be out for a bit (or possibly one hit away from hanging up the cleats against his will) and they just lost a key linebacker for at least a month. And let’s just assume Talib will miss at least a handful of games. All this makes me a think a couple less wins than 2013 is very likely.

Houston

• 2013 Record: 2-14
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 8-8
• Ross: 6-10

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: If you are a serious Super Bowl contender, bench your starting QB when you play Houston this year.
• Ross: The defense, running backs, receivers, special teams and coaching are all good enough to get Houston back to .500 this year, but unfortunately their quarterback is not. Ryan Fitzpatrick is at least two wins worse than an average starting QB.

Indianapolis

• 2013 Record: 11-5
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 9-7
• Ross: 11-5

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: Is any team more reliant on one player than Indy is on Luck?
• Ross: They actually have a 12 or 13 win schedule, but some offensive injuries concern me. Also extremely concerning, they’ve essentially been an extremely lucky team since Andrew Luck came into the league. In 2012, they made the playoffs despite having a negative point differential. In 2013, they had the second worst point differential among division winners even though they played at least five games against the worst teams in the league. Can’t put them in the elite 12+ wins tier until they prove it a bit more.

Jacksonville

• 2013 Record: 4-12
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 250/1 (worst odds in the NFL)

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 5-11
• Ross: 4-12

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: When Chad Henne and Toby Gerhart have you saying things like “wow, much better situation than last year” it is important to remember “much better” is relative.
• Ross: Right or wrong, you gotta respect the Jaguars for pulling off the “we don’t care if he’s the 3rd overall pick, we’re not letting Bortles start his career trajectory on the same path as Blaine Gabbert.” Their gun shyness on starting Bortles right away is understood with the way their last 1st round quarterback turned out.

Kansas City

• 2013 Record: 11-5
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 7-9
• Ross: 9-7

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: This team started last year 9-0 and ended the year 2-6. I expect more of the 2-6 team this year.
• Ross: Strange career from Alex Smith so far, right? Looked like a sure fire bust after his first four or five years, but then puts up a 30-9-1 win-loss record over the past three years and was at the helm of three straight playoff teams (obviously in 2012 he didn’t play the 2nd half of the year). It’s going to be a particularly odd career when it’s all said and done. I bet he’d take “odd” over “monumental bust” any day.

Miami

• 2013 Record: 8-8
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 7-9
• Ross: 9-7

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: Blah.
• Ross: Confession time…As a child, I was actually as much a Dolphins fan as I was a Patriots fan. I once bought THIS awesome wardrobe piece to show my allegiance. No joke. And for the first time in about 18 years, I find myself kind of liking this team again. I’d never root for them, of course, but I’m on board with all their pieces. They seem to be just above average enough to make the playoffs in the AFC (Confession #2: I wrote this as I watched them play the Cowboys in the third preseason game so that might be massively skewing how good they look right now).

New England

• 2013 Record: 12-4
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 7/1

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 11-5
• Ross: 12-4

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: If I remember correctly, last time the Patriot’s defense was better than the offense they won a Super Bowl.
• Ross: The Patriots have won less than 10 games just once in the past 13 years. Incredible. It feels like a useless endeavor to try to figure out if they’ll end up with 11, 12 or 13 wins this year. The second half schedule is downright scary (Chicago, Denver, @Indy, Detroit, @Green Bay, @San Diego in consecutive weeks) so an 8-0 start might be necessary if they have aspirations for the #1 seed.

NY Jets

• 2013 Record: 8-8
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 6-10
• Ross: 8-8

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: I guess the plan here is to try and build up a young team for when Brady and Belichick retire?
• Ross: The Jets have turned into the AFC’s version of the Cowboys right before our very eyes. It feels like we’re heading for another year where they’ll play just decent enough to hover around .500 and be part of the playoff conversation in December, only they’ll fall just short. Right down to going 8-8 almost every year, they are very Cowboyian.

Oakland

• 2013 Record: 4-12
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 4-12
• Ross: 3-13

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: Prediction for combined score in their four games against the NFC West: Oakland 13, NFC West 144.
• Ross: This team might be scary bad. I mentioned in a previous post that they play nine games against last year’s playoff teams. Their roster sucks. And believe it or not, they might be worst than last year’s 31st-ranked passing offense. I really don’t know if Matt Schaub is an upgrade over the Terrelle Pryor/Matt Flynn/Matthew McGloin triumvirate. They should probably be the odds-on favorite to “earn” the 1st overall pick in the 2015 draft.

Pittsburgh

• 2013 Record: 8-8
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 33/1

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 9-7
• Ross: 10-6

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: Bor-ing.
• Ross: Part of the reason for the 10-win prediction is because it feels like they have all the parts for 11 or 12 wins, only we know Ben Roethlisberger can’t possibly make it through 16 games. Therefore, we gotta dial it back a bit to account for the atrocious Bruce Gradkowski starts in October/November.

San Diego

• 2013 Record: 9-7
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 33/1

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 9-7
• Ross: 11-5

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: Maybe a little better than last year, but they play the NFC West, so similar record.
• Ross: Hmm. Why does it feel like we’re all going to wake up some Monday morning in November and collectively say, “Wow, why didn’t I see this elite San Diego offense coming?” Phil Rivers, Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates & Ladarius Green, a healthy Ryan Mathews complemented by useful guys like Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown. The tough schedule is the only thing worrying me, but I’m going with the surprise division win for these guys.

Tennessee

• 2013 Record: 7-9
• 2014 Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

2014 Prediction

• Neil: 6-10
• Ross: 4-12

Comment We Strongly Feel You Need To Read

• Neil: If you combined the best of Jake Locker with the best of Ryan Tannehill, would you have a top 12 QB?
• Ross: Add them to the mix of AFC teams vying for the #1 pick in the 2015.